【作者】 沈强；

【导师】 何勇； 姚炎明；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 农业工程， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 舟山群岛新区是国家一项做深做强海洋经济的战略决策。作为中国首个群岛新区,2011年3月14日,舟山群岛新区正式写入全国十二五规划,规划瞄准新加坡、香港世界一流港口城市,要拉动整个长江流域的经济。因此船舶在这一海域发生溢油事故的风险也随之不断增大。如果船舶发生了较大规模的溢油事故,这将给舟山海域的海洋生态环境和周边地区的经济建设带来严重的威胁,会直接影响舟山海域经济的快速发展。论文的主要内容包括：1.研究了舟山海域的水文、气象、地理区域等方面的情况。对影响船舶溢油的19种因素进行危险性分析。2.以“浙岱渔15366”轮为例建立了多层次灰色评价模型,并利用Visual Basic6.0编程软件开发了舟山海域船舶溢油风险评价软件。3.本研究通过对专家进行问卷调查,运用MATLAB7.9软件,自编层次分析法程序,得出：A-B判断矩阵说明船舶因素(0.4517)最重要；B1-C判断矩阵说明技术状态因素(0.3740)最重要；B2-C判断矩阵说明海况因素(0.2895)最重要；B3-C判断矩阵说明安全管理因素(0.6457)最重要；C5-D判断矩阵说明风的因素(0.2883)最重要；C10-D判断矩阵说明责任意识因素(0.2887)最重要。4.通过多层次灰色评价模型,假设2种极值条件,求出2个极值点,划分4个区间,分别对应4个风险等级。此研究结果为开发舟山海域船舶溢油风险评价软件奠定基础。5.本文选择层次分析法中应用普遍的3种标度分别用6个评估指标：一致性指标、.最大偏差值、均方差、标度均匀性、标度权重拟合度、权重排序等进行评估,得出en/5标度法性能最好。更多还原

【Abstract】 Zhoushan islands new district is developed in national strategic decisions to deepen and strengthen national marine economy. As China’s first islands district, Zhoushan islands new district has been formally written into national five-year plan, aiming at like Singapore, Hong Kong world class port city, to drive the economy of the whole Yangtze river valley on March14,2011.So the potential risk of pollution from ships has been growing. Once the oil spill accident happened to a vessel in a large scale,it would inevitably bring serious damage to the marine ecological environment,the economic development,directly affecting the economic development of Zhoushan sea area.The main results of the research are as follows:1. Studied on hydrological information,meteorological information, geographic area and so on of the Zhoushan sea area.Risk analysis of nineteen kinds of affecting ship’s oil spill factors.2."Zhedaiyu15366" vessel had been set for example to set up multi-hierarchical gray evaluation model,and a software system on general risk assessment of ship’s oil spill in the sea area of Zhoushan was developed with Visual Basic6.0based on the model.3. With the methods of expert consult survey,we had got these conclusions by self-compiling program of Analytic Hierarchy Process based on MATLAB7.9:A-B judge matrix showed that vessel factor(0.4517) was the most dangerous factor; B1-C judge matrix showed that technical condition factor(0.3740) was the most dangerous factor; B2-C judge matrix showed that sea state factor(0.2895) was the most dangerous factor; B3-C judge matrix showed that safety management factor(0.6457) was the most dangerous factor; Cs-D judge matrix showed that wind factor(0.2883) was the most dangerous factor; C10-D judge matrix showed that responsibility consciousness factor(0.2887) was the most dangerous factor. 4. Assuming two kinds of extremum conditions by multi-hierarchical gray evaluation model,we obtained two extreme points and devided into four intervals which respectively directed at four risk grades.According to these results,we established the foundation for developing software on general risk assessment of ship’s oil spill in the sea area of Zhoushan.5. Six evaluation indexes of three types of general application scales of Analytic Hierarchy Process in paper were compared with each other,which were concluded en/5exponential scale.These evaluation indexes were consistency,the most deviation value,mean square deviation,scale uniformity,scale weight fitting degree,weight sorting.更多还原