【作者】 李丽；

【导师】 李斌；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 大地测量学与测量工程， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 地面沉降是一种主要的城市地质灾害，其引发的环境地质问题严重影响了城市基础建设并制约着经济可持续发展，其中，地下水超采是引起地面沉降的主因。论文以西安市地面沉降为研究对象，旨在通过建立合适的地面沉降预测模型，辅助指导地下水开采行为，以保持地下水资源可持续利用和地面沉降的有效控制。论文在收集、整理和分析西安地区历史地面沉降资料的基础上，借鉴国内外研究成果，以研究区域内地下水开采量及地下水水位值作为模型输入变量，以各监测点年沉降速率为模型输出变量，尝试建模并预测其沉降发展趋势，以期为地下水合理开采提供参考依据。研究取得了如下成果：1.建立了地面沉降单一预测模型。分别建立了研究区域内地面沉降典型观测序列的BP神经网络、回归分析及灰色理论三种预测模型，在试验检验基础上，对上述三种预测模型的适用性进行了检验。2.建立了地面沉降组合预测模型。试验研究表明组合预测模型是提高地面沉降预测精度的有效手段，可为制定地下水开采方案提供参考依据。3.制定了地下水开采参考方案。通过对组合模型的应用分析，在理想开采模式下，西安地区总开采量为19262万m3/a、67417万m3/a、26872万m3/a时，其地面沉降均值分别为-13.2427mm、-30.1565mm和-73.4636mm。更多还原

【Abstract】 land subsidence is one of the main geological hazard in a city, and its relatedenviomental geology problems seriously affect the estabilishment of baseinfrastructure, andrestrict the sustainable development of economy. Existing research shows thatexcessivemining of groundwater is the mainly reason. Taking the subsidence of Xian district as thestudy object, this paper aims to establish proper land subsidence prediction model, auxiliaryguides the mining of groundwater, to maintain the sustainable utilization of groundwaterresources and effectively control land subsidence.Based on collecting, sorting and analyzing the historical observation data in xi’an, thispaper takes the amountment of regional groundwater mining and groundwater level as inputvariables, sedimentation rate of the monitoring as model output variables, attempts to modeland predict the subsidence trend, in order to provide reference basis for reasonableexploitation of groundwater. The research achievements are as follows:1. The land subsidence single prediction modelis established. Using the typicalobservation sequence in xi ’an region,respectively establishesthree kinds of prediction model,includingthe BP neural network, regression analysis and grey theory. On the basis ofexperimental test, the applicability of theabove modelsisverified.2. The land subsidence combination prediction model is established. Experimentalresearch shows that combined prediction model is the effective measure to improve the landsubsidence prediction accuracy, and it can provide the reference frame for designinggroundwater exploitation plan.3. Set the exploitation reference scheme of groundwater. Withthe analysis of modelapplication, Under the ideal mining patterns, when hypothetic yield of groundwater meets192.62million m3/a,674.17million m3/a,268.72million m3/a, the correspondingestimated average land subsidence rate is13.2427mm,30.1565mm and73.4636mmrespectively, compared with the previous studies prediction results, predicted results tend tobe conservative.更多还原