【作者】 董宇；

【导师】 齐红倩；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 数量经济学， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来，在我国的三十余年的发展历程中，制造业扮演了推动经济增长的重要角色，是我国国民经济快速增长的支柱性产业。然而，随着经济全球化的发展，制造业在全球范围内也开始迈向一个新的发展阶段。与此同时，我国制造业结构在国家宏观调控框架下也不断地进行调整。进入新世纪后，我国制造业面临着巨大的挑战，也伴随着无数的机遇，具有较大的发展潜力和改善空间。本文首先对我国制造业按要素密集度进行分类，将其分为劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型三类，并按照上述分类与美国、德国、日本的制造业现状进行对比，总结了1995年以来我国制造业的发展与结构变动历史。其次，本文根据现有研究成果，结合我国制造业的现状与当前我国经济发展特征，利用基于数据包络分析的Malmquist指数模型对1980-2012年我国制造业全要素生产率进行了分行业测算。第三，在上述研究结论基础上，以“结构红利假说”为理论依据，构造了我国的制造业行业结构合理化指标与行业结构高级化指标，利用面板固定效应模型和面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）实证考察我国制造业行业结构变动对全要素生产率变化的影响。依据上述研究，本文得出如下结论：通过对我国制造业全要素生产率的计算可以看出，我国制造业在过去33年中全要素生产率多数情况下大于1，并无固定趋势，但其中技术密集型行业的全要素生产率增长幅度较大。通过对全要素生产率进一步的分解可以发现，我国制造业全要素生产率的提升主要依靠的是规模效率的提升，纯技术进步的贡献较低，技术进步的作用并不明显。另外，利用面板固定效应模型和面板向量自回归模型分析后发现，行业结构合理化对于我国制造业全要素生产率有促进的作用，但是行业结构高级化却起到相反的作用，而且行业结构变动对全要素生产率的促进影响需要一个较长的时期进行积累和消化，如果只是以十年这样一个较短的时间段作为考察期，则结构变动对于经济的促进影响难以显现。对此本文提出如下政策建议：第一，在未来政府制定相关行业发展战略时，应当着重考虑行业的技术进步、科技研发、管理水平提高等方面，而不应当仅以行业的发展规模作为单一考核指标，这种政府管理方式的转变对于解决我国当前经济结构不合理、部分行业产能过剩等制约经济健康发展等问题具有较好的效果。第二，面对当前经济结构不合理的情况，政府在出台相应的结构调整方案时应明确：结构调整并非一时之功，在过去的十年甚至二十年的时间里，虽然多次提出调整产业结构和调整制造业结构的构想，但是这种短期内难以显现的效果令相关的政策无法长期实施，政府的短视行为造成了当前经济结构调整积重难返的现状，如何出台一个具有长效机制的结构调整政策，是关系到未来中国经济健康发展的关键命题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The manufacturing industry plays an important role to promote the growth of theeconomy of China since reform and open policy30years ago, and it is the pillar ofthe national economic growth. However, with the development of economicglobalization, the manufacturing industry has begun to step onto a new stage ofdevelopment on a global scale; as a result, the pattern of manufacturing industry inour country has been changed in recent years. After entering the new century, China’smanufacturing industry is facing enormous challenges, with countless opportunities,thus the industry has great potential for development and improvement.First, this paper classifies China’s manufacturing industry according to theintensity factors. The three classes are labor-intensive, capital-intensive andtechnology-intensive. According to the above classification we carry on a transversecomparison of manufacturing industry with the USA, Germany and Japan since1995.Second, based on the existing research results, combined with the present situationand the characteristics of economic development in our country, this paper calculatesthe manufacturing TFP in1980-2012of China using the Malmquist index model. Atlast，on the theoretical basis of structure bonus hypothesis，this paper uses the panelfixed effects model and panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) to research theimpact of China’s manufacturing industry structure change on TFP.From the above research, this paper makes the following conclusions: China’smanufacturing industry obtained rapid development since reform and opening up, butthe development is a result of the increase of scale, rather than the efficiency oftechnology promoting. The TFP of manufacturing industry is greater than1in mostcases with no fixed trend, and the growth of technology-intensive industry is the mostrapidly. Through to the further decomposition, it can be found that the promotion of manufacturing TFP in China mainly relies on promoting the efficiency of scale, thecontribution of pure technical progress and technological progress are not obvious.After analyzing the panel fixed effects model and PVAR model, this paper findsrationalization of manufacturing industry structure can promote TFP, but thesophistication of industrial structure has an opposite effect. And industry structurechange on TFP promoting effect needs a long period of accumulation and digestion, ifonly for a probationary period as ten years, the impact is difficult to show.Therefore, we put forward the following suggestions: the government shouldfocus on industry technology progress, R&D, the management method improvementinstead of only on the development of the industry scale in the future. Changing theway of the government management has good effect on improving the healthydevelopment of the economic in China. Facing the current unreasonable economicstructure, the government should realize that structure adjustment is not a short-termbehavior. In the past ten or more years, although putting forward the idea of adjustingindustrial structure many times, the effect is not obvious as short-term behavior of thegovernment caused the current status of the legacy of the economic structureadjustment. The introduction of a good policy is very important for the healthydevelopment of China’s economy.更多还原