【作者】 孙辉；

【导师】 刘衍珩；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 软件工程， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 我国中小型制造企业存在组织结构简单、部门职责交叉混杂、管理体制不健全等问题，一方面，在企业内部管理上，由于各部门职责的不明确，导致各部门间工作协调力差，企业内部信息不能顺畅的流通，这样一来，面对生产任务时，企业无法快速而又准确的下达生产命令，行动目标模糊，计划不周密，可能跟不上市场的风云变幻，最终导致资源的极大的浪费；另一方面，当今市场的竞争已经不是单个企业间的竞争，而是整个企业供应链之间的竞争，实施ERP的制造企业，能够很好的整合供应商资源，客户资源，及各种生产要素，弥补以前依靠人力去费劲整合这些资源的不足，形成了企业的综合竞争实力。特别是中小型制造企业，由于其规模小，信息资源少，更有必要及时的与自己本行业的供应链进行沟通，及时获得信息。借助ERP系统可以解决企业信息闭塞的局面，给企业注入生机与活力。本文针对我国中小型制造企业在发展过程中出现的管理不规范和企业业务流程不科学等问题，运用科学的流程规范方法，以电动车制造企业流程为例进行分析，分别对采购、销售、生产加工等环节进行业务流程分析与优化，提出电动车制造业业务生产的一般模型，接着对企业进销存活动作需求分析，规划销售、采购、库存等部门的职责功能，结合企业的实际情况，在需求分析的基础上，抽象出数据库的模型，设计ERP的框架，并且开发出电动车制造业ERP系统。然而，ERP只是解决了企业管理上资源优化问题，随着ERP在企业的运行，在后台数据库中积累了大量的业务数据，特别是销售方面的数据，如果能对这些数据加以分析，挖掘出它背后的知识、规则，将会更好地指导企业领导人的决策活动。本文研究了销售相关数据，并且运用神经网络、时间序列分析、灰色理论等方法，构建了销售预测模型，对比这几种方法的预测结果，采用预测误差最小方法来指导销售预测工作，并且在模型形成的基础上，开发了销售预测系统，从而更好地为企业决策提供支持，提高企业生产效率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Middle and small manufacture enterprise in China have the problems of simple weaveconstruction, overlapping organizations, defective management system. On the one hand, onthe enterprise internal management, overlapping organizations lead to poor coordination ofvarious departments, unsmooth circulation of enterprise internal information. Thus, in the faceof the production tasks, companies can’t produce fast and accurate issued orders to makeoperational objectives vague and plan uncareful. Enterprise can’t keep up with the changingmarket, resulting in a great waste of resources. On the other hand, market competition is notthe competition between individual enterprises now, but the competition between the wholeenterprise supply chains. Implement ERP manufacturing companies can merge well supplierresources, customer resources, and various factors of production. ERP makes up the shortageof relying on human effort to integrate these resources ago and form the enterprise’scomprehensive competitive power. It is essential for small and medium-sized manufacturingenterprises, because of its small size and less information resources, to communicate timelywith their supply chain in the industry and timely access to information. ERP system cansolve the situation of business information-poor and infuse vigor and vitality to the enterprise.With the development of information technology, advanced information managementmeans are used in all walks of life. More and more manufacturing enterprises are moreconcerned about how to manage their own enterprises well by employing the advancedinformation management methods to maximize the use of the enterprise resources andoptimize the resources distribution.In view of the problems that occur in the development of the small and mediummanufacturing enterprises, such as the non-standardized business management and theunscientific business process, the thesis applies the scientific process specification methodinto the Electric vehicle manufacturing business process to analyze and optimize thepurchasing, sales, production, processing and so on in the business process and propose ageneral model for the manufacturing business production. And then it makes a demandanalysis of the purchasing, sales, and stocking activities in enterprises, and plans theresponsibility and function of sales, purchasing and stocking departments. Based on thedemand analysis, it abstracts the database model, designs the general framework of ERP anddevelops the Electric vehicle manufacturing ERP system with the actual conditions of theenterprises.However, ERP only solves the resources optimization problem in enterprise businessmanagement, but a lot of business data are accumulated in the background database with the operation of the ERP in enterprises, particularly in sales. If these data are analyzed to find outthe knowledge and regulations behind them, it can better guide the decision-making activitiesof business leaders. The thesis analyzes the sales-related data and constructs a salesforecasting model by using the methods of neural networks, time series analysis, grey theoryand so on. Under the guidance of the combinigng forcast theory, the minimum predictionerror method is adopted to guide the sales forecasting by comprehensively utilizing thecomparison results of the above methods. The sales forecasting system is developed on thebasis of the model, which can better provide support for business decisions and improveproduction efficiency of the enterprises.更多还原