【作者】 张勇；

【导师】 陈文府；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 产业经济学， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 进入21世纪以来,中国的互联网有了长足的发展,对经济社会造成了广泛深远的影响,这也使得互联网与经济发展的相关问题得到越来越多学者们的关注。互联网为各经济主体提供了优越的信息平台,让经济交流突破了时间与空间的束缚,并在扩大交易范围、减少交易成本的基础上,深化了社会分工、创造了更多就业岗位,是新时代经济发展的重要动力之一,其作用已不可代替：一方面,互联网作为知识经济时代的重要象征与信息化生活的主要载体,它承载起了一个新兴产——互联网产业的发展,并使之以惊人的速度发展壮大,成为我国产业中的新锐力量,给经济增长注入了活力；另一方面,互联网又凭借着自身的信息平台优势与科技优势,在多方面给传统产业带来了机遇与变革。可以看出,对经济增长的研究已无法忽视互联网因素的作用,因此,本文在分析中国互联网发展现状、特征与趋势的情况下,构建经济增长模型,选取适合的变量与数据,研究互联网发展对经济贡献程度的大小,并探讨互联网对经济推动效应的特点,为互联网发展提出建议。本文选择了以经典的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数为基础构建模型,将劳动力受教育程度考虑进入力资本、并使用了全要素生产率(TFP)的方法对原有函数进行改变,从而构建出本文研究所需要的增长模型。同时,采用主成分分析法对互联网的三个单方面指标——网民数量、网站数量与CN域名数量进行分析并做特征向量计算,再对主成分特征向量的计算结果数据进行归一化处理以方便计量分析,最终得出能够代表区域互联网总体发展程度的综合指标,称之为互联网发展指数。本文通过观察互联网发展指数与单项互联网指标的特征来描述互联网发展状况,同时将互联网发展指数代入模型中,研究其对经济增长的影响。本文模型的研究时段为2000年至2010年,收集整理了全国30个省、直辖市和自治区的面板数据,选用固定效应模型的回归结果,研究互联网对经济增长的贡献作用,并且进一步地做了分时段与分细化指标的研究。论文研究的主要结论如下：第一,中国互联网的发展成果令人瞩目,速度飞快,趋势良好。第二,互联网有着较强的经济推动力,对经济增长有较大贡献。根据本文的计算,11年来,互联网对GDP增长率的贡献达到了年均1.54个百分点,贡献率已达12.45%,这说明互联网已是经济增长不可或缺的新动力。第三,随着时间的推移、互联网的加速发展,互联网对经济的推动力正不断加强。不同时段内的研究结果发现,互联网因素在后一时段明显要比前一时段对经济有更强烈的推动作用,而后一时段正是互联网的加速增长阶段。第四,在影响互联网发展的因素中,网民数量对经济的影响较大,且一直保持稳定状态；而CN域名数对经济的影响作用则随着时间推移,由弱变强。最后,本文分析了互联网现阶段发展可能存在的两方面问题,一是国内互联网发展水平与发达国家存在差距,如在互联网普及、基础设施建设、互联网技术及话语权等方面；二是国内的互联网发展障碍,如存在产业间不正当竞争现象等。为此,本文提出了发展建议,大致有如下几点：(1)继续推进互联网普及工作,提高互联网基础建设的质量；(2)完善制度环境,保证互联网健康发展；(3)加大政府扶植力度,促进互联网产业创新；(4)重视人才培养,深化国际合作。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the21st century, China has made great progress in the development of the Internet. The Internet is causing widespread economic and social impact, which also makes the relationship between the Internet and economic development has been getting more and more attention from scholars. The Internet provides a superior platform of information for economic agents, so that economic exchanges can break the shackles of time and space. On the basis of expanding the scope of the transaction and reduce transaction costs, the Internet deepening social division of labor, creating more jobs. The Internet is one of the important driving force of the new era of economic development, its role is irreplaceable. On the one hand, as the main carrier of the era of knowledge economy and an important symbol of information technology, the Internet carries the development of Internet industry, makes Internet industry growing up at an alarming rate and becoming an emerging force in the industry. Internet industry inject economic growth vitality. On the other hand, Internet takes the advantages of Information Platform and Technology, brings many changes and development opportunities to traditional industries in many ways. As can be seen, the study of economic growth has been unable to ignore the role of the internet factors, therefore, based on the analysis of the current development of China’s Internet, characteristics and trends, this paper builds a model of economic growth, selects the appropriate variables and data, makes research on degree of contributions that the Internet makes to economic growth, investigates the effect of the Internet on promoting economic and makes recommendations for the development of the Internet.By selecting the model constructed on the ground of classical Cobb-Douglas Function, the paper considers the education level of labor force into human capital and utilizes the total factor productivity (TFP) method to alter the original function, thus constructing the growth model needed in this research. At the same time, the paper uses the principal component analysis (PCA) method to analyze three unilateral indicators of Internet--netizen number, site number and CN domain name number and make an eigenvector calculation before making the normalization processing about calculation result data of principal component eigenvector, so as to facilitate quantitative analyses. Finally, the author concludes the aggregative indicator that can represent the overall development degree of regional Internet, which is called Internet development index. Through observing characteristics of Internet development index and single index, the paper describes the development situation of Internet, and meanwhile substitutes the Internet development index into the model to study its influences on economic growth. The study phase of this model ranges from2000to2010, and the researcher collects and systemizes panel data in30provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of the country. After selecting regression results of fixed effect model, the researcher studies the contribution of Internet to economic growth, and further makes researches in phases and in detailed indicators. The main conclusions thesis is as follows.Firstly, the results of China’s Internet developing is impressive and the trend is good. Secondly, the Internet has a strong economic driver and a greater contribution to economic growth. According to the calculation of this article, in11years, the contribution of the Internet on an average annual GDP growth rate has reached1.54percent, and the contribution rate has reached12.45%, indicating that the Internet is an integral part of the new engine of economic growth. Thirdly, with the passage of time and the accelerated development of the Internet, the Internet driving force on economy is strengthening. The results are found in different time periods of research: in the second half, the Internet’s effect on the economy significantly stronger than the first half, and the second half is the stage of accelerated growth of the Internet. Fourth, among the factors affecting the development of the Internet, netizen number has greater influence on economy, and it has maintained a steady state. However, the influence of CN domain name number changes from weak to strong with the passage of time.In the end, this paper analyzes two aspects of the Internet development that may exist at the present stage. Firstly, on the level of development of the Internet, there is a gap between China and developed countries, such as popularity of the Internet, infrastructure, Internet technology and the right to speak. Secondly, in the country, there are obstacles to development of the Internet, such as unfair competition among industries. To solve the above problem, the paper proposes some suggestions, which roughly cover the following several points:(1) To continue to advance the work of Internet popularization and enhance the quality of Internet infrastructure;(2) To perfect institutional environment and ensure the healthy development of the Internet;(3) To increase the effort of governmental support and accelerate the innovation in Internet industry;(4) To emphasize talent training, deepen the cooperation between countries.更多还原