【作者】 杜斌；

【导师】 徐旭初；

【作者基本信息】 安徽财经大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 金融发展能否影响经济增长是西方理论界一直以来探讨与研究的热点问题之一。随着国外学者与专家对经济学研究的不断深化,金融发展理论研究成果颇丰,其中包括金融发展与经济增长之间的作用机制、金融抑制、金融自由化、金融市场化等方面。国内学者对金融发展与经济增长关系的研究更多是在参考国外研究方案和研究方法的前提下针对我国经济金融发展的现状对经济发展与金融发展之间的关联性进行了研究。虽然学者们的研究角度各有不同,但是他们都是以客观的金融历史数据为研究根据的,有的学者甚至引入了比较法等先进的研究方法。随着社会经济的飞速发展,金融业的学者们也渐渐意识到了金融在资源配置中所起的作用。学者们已经达成一种共识,那就是金融发展对经济增长确实存在影响,但是关于金融发展如何影响经济发展以及影响程度的深浅学者们还难以给出定论。本文选择向量自回归(VAR)模型作为框架,选择对外开放、金融发展、固定资产投资、劳动投入和经济增长作为模型中的变量指标,使用的是年度数据(1989-2012),目的就是来考察安徽省金融发展在经济增长中的相对作用。结果表明,在短期,是实体经济部门对增加资本要素投入的需求,这势必会带动金融的发展；但是,在经济和金融的发展过程中,相关学者并未发现二者之间存在任何因果联系。从目前的现状来看,经济的增长并不会受到金融变化的任何影响,但是根据VAR方差分析结果显示,安徽省金融的VAR原数据层面充分证实了金融发展对经济增长起到了推波助澜作用,而且,金融因素是影响经济增长的四大因素中最重要的一个因素。也有学者表示,固定资产投资因素自第四期开始就会慢慢对经济增长产生强有力的影响,此时,金融因素不再是影响力最大的因素。相关研究证实：金融发展离不开良好的经济环境,也就是说,金融的发展必须建立在经济增长这个大前提之上。但是,关于二者的相互影响程度而言,明显是经济增长对金融发展的影响更为突出。这说明,在上世纪八十年代至新世纪期间,安徽省的金融发展速度为经济增长做出了杰出的贡献,这也是安徽省经济得以稳定增长的原因之一。可见,在我国未来的经济发展过程中,制定一个科学、合理的金融发展战略是十分有必要的。更多还原

【Abstract】 There is a hot topic of research beening discussed by western theorists, which is whether financial development could affect economic growth. With economics’ deepening, foreign scholars and experts has yielded fruitful results about financial development theories, including mechanism of action between financial development and economic growth, financial repression, financial liberalization, financial markets and other aspects. As to research about relationship between financial development and economic growth, Domestic scholars is apt to refer to foreign research programs, research methods and status about economic and financial development in China.Although scholars have different research perspective, they are based on objective historical data about financial. Meanwhile, some scholars even introduces comparative analysis and other advanced research methods.With rapid socio-economic development, scholars has gradually realized that finance is playing an important role in the allocation of resources. Scholars have reached a consensus that financial development do affect economic growth, but they are difficult to give a conclusion about how financial development affect economic growth and influence depth. Using annual data (1989-2012), This paper selects vector autor regression (VAR) model as a framework and selects index about opening to the outside world, financial development, investment in fixed assets, labor input and economic growth as the indicator variables in the model. The purpose is to find ralative relationship between financial development and economic growth in Anhui province. The result Shows that the real economy will increase the demand for capital inputs in the short term, which will be bound to promote financial development; However, In the process of development of economy and finance, researchers found no causality. By reviewing the status quo, economic growth does not have any impact on finance, but according to VAR analysis of variance, financial development did promote economic growth under the sufficiently substantiated raw data level, and finance played the most important role in the four factors that affect economic growth. Some scholars also said that the factor of investment in fixed assets will slowly have a strong impact on economic growth from the fourth period,and then the factor of financial is no longer the most influential factor. Studies shows that financial development is inseparable from a good economic environment, that is, financial development must be based on economic growth. However, with regard to the interaction levels between this two factors, obviously economic growth have a more prominent impact on financial development. In a word, from the eight’s of the last century to the new century,financial development has made an outstanding contribution to economic growth in Anhui province, which is one of the reasons to stabilize economic growth.It is clear that in order to promote economic development, the development of a scientific and rational financial development strategy is very necessary.更多还原