【作者】 陈晨；

【导师】 潘淑娟；

【作者基本信息】 安徽财经大学 ， 金融学， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 小额贷款公司作为微型金融体系的一个重要组成部分,在我国的经济运行中发挥着不可忽视的作用。它既能丰富“三农”金融产品和服务,促进新农村建设,又为我国中小微企业的发展提供了有力的资金支持,弥补了我国商业银行金融服务的空白。但是,由于目前我国小额贷款公司还处于探索阶段,法律法规、市场机制、监管主体等方面还不健全,小额贷款公司在运营过程中存在着诸多的风险,如果不及时加以控制,不仅会成为困扰小额贷款公司进一步发展的瓶颈,甚至将会对我国经济健康运行产生不利的影响。因此建立一套科学系统的小额贷款公司风险预警体系是非常有必要的。小额贷款公司风险预警体系研究,是通过科学的方法选择合理的预警指标,然后进行风险预警模型的实证分析,最终建立起符合我国小额贷款公司发展需要和其现实情况的风险预警体系。本文立足于我国小额贷款公司现状,在对其风险状况的分析的基础上运用层次分析、功效系数等方法,建立了我国小额贷款公司风险预警模型,再以某小额贷款公司作为实证案例,验证预警模型的有效性,结果表明,模型预测结果与样本小额贷款公司的实际情况基本相符,所以可以认为本文得到的小额贷款公司风险预警模型具有一定的实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The micro loan company as an important ingredient of the micro-finance system, plays an essential role in China’s economic operation. Not only could it enrich the "Agriculture, Ruralareas and Peasantry" financial products and services, promoting the construction of new countryside, but also provide strong financial support for the development of small and micro enterprises in China, making up blanks of financial service of commercial banks. However, due to the micro loan company in China is still at the exploratory stage, laws and regulations, market mechanisms, regulatory body is not perfect, there are many risks lie in the process of operation of the micro loan company, if it is not controlled in time, not only will it be the bottleneck, hampering the further development of micro loan company but have a negative impact on economy’s healthy operation of China. It is very necessary to establish a scientific system of the risk early warning system of the micro loan company.The study of the risk early warning system of the micro loan company, screening reasonable warning indicators through scientific methods, and then carrying on the empirical analysis of the risk early warning model, ultimately establishing the risk early warning system cater for the development and it’s reality of the micro loan company. This article is based on the status quo of the micro loan company in China, the analytic hierarchy process on the basis of its analysis of the risk profile, efficacy coefficient of the micro loan companies risk early warning model, then taking an micro loan company as an empirical case, to verify the effectiveness of early warning model, the results show that the predicted results agree with the situation of the sample micro credit company, so that the risk early warning model of the micro loan company has some practical value.更多还原