【作者】 刘娜；

【导师】 宋之杰； 李树广；

【作者基本信息】 燕山大学 ， 项目管理， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 相对于火力、水利和其他发电形式来说，风力发电投资资金巨大，售电价格比较高，存在很大的投资风险。同时，风力发电作为一种新型发电形式，发电技术发展比较快，设备更新速度比较快，相关设备生产企业存在存续不足的问题，而风电资源评价的准确性不高，进一步增加了风电场投资项目的风险。风电场作为系统工程，各个环节之间衔接的好坏也影响风电场投资项目的风险性，所以降低风电场投资项目的风险是投资者需要有效解决的主要问题。本文以风电控制理论为基础，结合沧州市风电场投资项目的实际情况，分析了沧州风电场投资项目、实际情况、施工环境和存在的主要问题，对沧州风电场投资项目风险进行有效地评价，提出了有效风电场项目风险规避办法和措施。首先，在对沧州风险投资项目中的风险因素进行归类的基础上，从调查问卷、变量确定和分析方法等方面阐述风险因素识别。在数据收集过程中，主要采取了专家调查法和问卷调查法来收集相应数据，主要包括问卷调查、发放和回收，排除其他项目的干扰因素。其次，文章借鉴国内、外相关理论进行实证分析，确立风电场投资项目中的各种变量，对各种风险进行分析研究。在沧州风电场投资项目分析过程中，找出资源风险、设备风险、电价风险、送出风险。再次，对沧州风电场工程投资建设中存在的风险进行深入分析，针对可能存在的风险提出控制对策。沧州风电场投资项目中风险对策和项目管理是沧州风电场实际投资建设的基础，可以为国内其他风电场投资项目建设提供借鉴。最后，阐述沧州风电场投资项目中存在的风险主要包括，风资源评估风险、风力发电设备技术风险、政府电价政策风险、电力送出工程风险、操作管理风险。针对投资项目风险提出相应的对策，以期能够为沧州风电场项目风险控制提供切实可行的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With respect to fire, water and other forms of power generation, the wind powergeneration is in great need of capital investment and the electricity price is relatively high.There is a big investment risk. Meanwhile, the wind power generation is taken as one kindof new electricity generation forms, which acquires the related more development in theelectricity generation and equipment improvements. However, it is insufficient for therelated equipment manufacturing enterprises to keep the wind resource and. The windresource assessment accuracy is not high, which further increases the risk of wind farminvestment projects. The wind power station regarded as system engineering, wind farmsas systems engineering, the quality of convergence in all aspects of it has an influence onthe risk of investment projects. Therefore it is the main problem to reduce the risk of windfarm investments effectively.This paper takes the wind electricity control theory as a foundation, unifies the actualsituation in Cangzhou wind electric field investment plan, it has analyzed the Changzhouwind electric field investment plan, the actual situation and the main problems in theconstruction environment. And the paper evaluates the risks in wind power station inCangzhou and points out the effective methods and measures of risk aversion.Firstly, in this paper, the risk factors in Cangzhou risk in investment projects areclassified on the basis of the survey questionnaire, variables and methods of analysis todetermine the risk factors identified. During the process of the data collection, it adoptsthe expert investigation method and the questionnaire survey procedure to collect thecorresponding data, mainly including questionnaires, distribution and recycling, theexclusion of other items interfering factors.Secondly, the paper absorbs the domestic and foreign relevant theoretical empiricalanalysis and establishes the wind farm investment projects in a variety of variables and avariety of risk analysis. During of the analysis process in Changzhou wind power stationinvestment plans, it identifies resource risk, equipment risk, price risk and sending risk.Thirdly, the paper proposes the control countermeasure after an in-depth analysis of the risks against the possible risk control measures proposed in Cangzhou wind stationinvestment construction, which is the foundation for the wind station investmentconstruction in Changzhou and it may provide the model for other wind power stationinvestment construction in china.Finally, the paper elaborates many risks in Cangzhou wind power station investment,mainly including wind resource assessment of risks, technical risks of wind powergeneration equipment, the government price policy risk, power transmission project risk,and operational risk management. And it provides the corresponding countermeasure inview of the investment plan risk. It is expected to provide practical recommendations forthe project risk control in Cangzhou wind power station.更多还原