【作者】 黄静；

【导师】 沈江；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 自然灾害在由社会系统、自然生态系统组成的人类生产、生活环境中频繁爆发，威胁人类生命安全的同时，还造成了严重的经济财产损失、资源破坏，影响社会的稳定。地震、海啸、洪水、干旱等自然灾害给人类社会带来了持续不断的灾难，所以最大化的降低自然灾害造成的损失，是国际社会的一个共同目标，防灾减灾也已经成为国家、区域、城市、社区管理的焦点之一。自然灾害脆弱性评估研究作为灾害管理的理论基础和研究工具，已经得到了各国政府和学者越来越多的重视，在灾害风险管理中发挥着前所未有的重要作用。在自然灾害脆弱性评估方面，国内外灾害研究学者因研究对象和研究目的的差异做出了不断的创新。本文在对已有自然灾害脆弱性评估方法分析和研究的基础上，提出了精细量化的评价指标体系和模型算法，以多属性综合评价的方式选取典型指标信息对自然灾害脆弱性完成系统的科学评价，并以天津市滨海新区为例验证了指标体系与评估模型在理论上的科学性与技术上的可行性，实现脆弱性评估体系的计量、比较、监测预警目标，给城市自然灾害脆弱性评估提供具有科学性、合理性和客观性的评估标准，对构建以“风险防范”为核心的城市风险应急管理体系、保障城市生命财产安全和可持续发展具有重要的科学意义。本文首先综述了自然灾害脆弱性评估的研究成果，并发掘为实现实际应用需要进一步完善的理论和方法。其次，分析了自然灾害脆弱性多属性决策特征和多属性评估体系，完成了对脆弱性评价指标体系理论、多属性决策等相关理论的研究。而后基于相关—主成分分析筛选冗余度低、对评价结果有显著影响的指标，构建精细量化的脆弱性指标体系。并进一步采用基于EOWA算子的多属性语言评估方法聚合脆弱性指标，构建自然灾害脆弱性评估模型，并完成天津市滨海新区脆弱性评估的实证研究。最后总结本文的研究工作，并明确了今后深入研究的具体方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Natural disasters occurred in human production and living environmentinvolving of social systems and natural ecosystems frequently, threatening the safetyof human life and producing serious economic damage to property and resourcedamages, as a result affecting social stability. Earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughtsand other natural disasters, brought ongoing dangerous damages to human society, soit’s one of the international community’s common goals to minimize the loss causedby natural disasters, and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation has also become one ofthe focuses of the national, regional, city, and community management. Vulnerabilityassessment of natural disasters as the theoretical basis of the disaster management andresearch tools, has attracted more and more attention of governments and scholars,playing an unprecedented role in disaster risk management.In the vulnerability assessment of natural disasters research, constant innovationwas made by disaster research scholars at home and abroad due to the differences ofthe object of study and research purposes. On the basis of existing vulnerabilityassessment analysis methods and research of natural disaster, a meticulous andquantitative assessment index system and model algorithm were put forward in thisresearch. A multi-attribute comprehensive assessment method was used to select thetypical indicators of natural disasters vulnerability to complete the scientificassessment system in this thesis, and Tianjin Binhai New Area, was taken for exampleto verify the feasibility of the index system and assessment model in theoreticalscience and technical. Through this research, the measurement, comparison,monitoring and early warning targets of vulnerability assessment of natural disasterscould be reached, providing scientific rationality and objectivity of assessment criteriafor urban vulnerability assessment of natural disasters, which could have importantscientific significance on building urban risk emergency management system and withrisk prevention as the core and protecting the security and sustainable development ofurban life and property.Firstly, this thesis reviewed the research results of the vulnerability assessment ofnatural disasters, exploring further theories and methods improving to achieve practical application. Secondly, natural disasters vulnerability’s multi-attributedecision-making features and multi-attribute assessment system were analyzed,completing the study of vulnerability assessment index system theory and relatedmulti-attribute decision making theory. Thirdly, based on correlation-principalcomponent analysis, vulnerability indexes were filtered to meet the requirement oflow redundancy and having significant impact on assessment results, and a precisequantization vulnerability index system was built. Fourthly, EOWA operator ofmulti-attribute language assessment method was used for polymeric the vulnerabilityindexes and vulnerability assessment model of natural disasters was build. What’smore, empirical research on vulnerability assessments of Tianjin Binhai New Areawas also completed. Finally, conclusions were made and specific directions for furtherresearch were clearly pointed out.更多还原