【作者】 刘宇；

【导师】 崔裴；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 投资、出口与需求是促进一国经济增长的三架马车。就我国而言,长久以来,经济的增长过度依赖于出口与投资,内需不振是困扰经济发展的一大难题。西方学者认为,居民收入及财富存量是影响消费的主要因素。随着过去几年房价的持续增长,房地产已经成为我国居民最主要的财富,因此研究我国房地产价格波动对居民消费的影响具有重要的意义。首先,依据Ludweig和Slok所提出的房地产财富效应的五大传导渠道,针对对房地产价格波动影响居民消费的问题,采用建模的方法进行理论研究,研究发现,房价上涨对居民消费的作用受房价收入比、贷款首付比、收入差距、传统消费习惯、房地产三级市场完善程度以及住房金融市场状况等因素的制约,而我国在这些因素方面的现状决定了我国房价波动对居民消费的实际影响作用弱于国外发达国家。其次,利用2007年至2011年我国季度数据对我国房价上涨对消费的影响程度进行实证分析,发现我国房价上涨对消费具有刺激作用,但是这种作用比较微弱,这一结果验证了之前的预测。最后,根据前述影响因素的分析,提出六条政策建议,包括：缩小贫富差距、建立多层次的住房供给结构、合理调控房地产价格、完善房地产三级市场、完善住房金融市场及合理引导居民消费习惯。更多还原

【Abstract】 Investment, exports, and demand is to promote a country’s economic growth in three carriages. In our case, a long time, economic growth over-reliance on exports and investment, sluggish domestic demand is a major problem plaguing economic development. Western scholars believe that the residents’ income and wealth stocks are the main factors to affect the consumer. With the continued growth of house prices over the past few years, real estate has become the most important wealth of Chinese residents, and therefore of great significance to study the volatility of real estate prices impact on consumer.First of all, of the five transmission channels of the real estate wealth effect in accordance with Ludweig and Slok, using a modeling approach to real estate price volatility affecting consumer theoretical research; study found that real estate price volatility on the consumer by roomprice income ratio, down payment loans ratio, income gap, the traditional consumption habits, real estate and tertiary markets to improve the factors of the extent of the housing finance market conditions in China in the status of these factors determine our price fluctuations on consumerThe practical effect was weaker than in developed countries.Secondly, the use of quarterly data for2007-2011to an empirical analysis of the impact of China’s housing prices on consumption, found that China’s housing prices has a stimulating effect on consumption, but this effect is relatively weak, this result is verifiedforecast.Finally, according to the foregoing analysis of influencing factors, the six policy recommendations, including:to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, the establishment of a multi-level housing supply structure, reasonable regulation of real estate prices, improve real estate and tertiary markets, housing finance market and a reasonable guide residents consumption habits.更多还原