【作者】 陈晨；

【导师】 葛炬； 刘韶林；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 电气工程（专业学位）， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 能源是经济社会发展的重要物质基础。改革开放以来,我国能源工业飞速发展,而能源发展和资源、环境之间的矛盾也日益显现。在能源供给日趋紧张、资源环境约束加剧的背景下,节能降耗、控制能源消费总量是经济社会可持续发展的重要保障。能源消费总量控制的手段主要包括市场手段和行政手段,将全国目标分解到各省区是现阶段我国实施能源消费总量控制行之有效的行政手段,也是我国“十二五”规划纲要确定的能源发展和改革任务之一。电力消费是终端能源消费的重要组成部分,控制电力消费量可以间接实现控制能源消费总量,科学合理的进行电力消费量控制目标区域分解是实施电力消费量控制的重要前提。本文综合考虑我国各地区的经济社会发展的差异,建立了体现公平性并具有可操作性的电力消费量区域分解方案。首先,本文介绍了电力消费量区域分解的原则,分析了电力消费量影响因素,并根据影响因素选择表征指标,确立了电力消费量区域分解的指标体系；其次,本文将熵值法和基于时间维度的动态分析方法引入模型,构建了基于信息熵的电力消费量区域分解模型,同时以当前电力消费量为初始分配,应用基尼系数优化调整等方法建立了基于基尼系数法的电力消费量区域分解模型；最后,本文对两种电力消费量区域分解模型进行了算例分析,将“十二五”末全国电力消费量控制目标分解至各地区,并比较分析两种方法的差异性和适用性,结果表明基于信息熵的分解法在反映不同地区差异性方面更具优势,更适合在现阶段我国各地区经济社会发展差异较大的情况下应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is an important material basis for economic and social development. Energy industry developet rapidly since the reform and opening up, nevertheless, the contradiction between energy development, resources, and the environment is also increasingly apparent. As the energy supply become increasingly tense, resource and environmental constraints have become exacerbated, energy saving and total energy consumption control are important guarantee for the sustainable economic and social development.To this end, the eighteenth National Congress of the CPC set a clear demand to control total energy consumption. The main means of total energy consumption control include market-based instruments and administrative means, the national target decomposition to the provinces at this stage is the implementation of effective administrative means to control the total energy consumption. The electricity consumption is an important part of the final energy consumption, to control electricity consumption can control energy consumption indirectly. Decomposing electricity consumption control target to domain scientifically and reasonably is an important prerequisite for the control of electricity consumption.This paper considered the differences of economic and social development of the regions, and established a domain electricity consumption decomposition scheme which embodies fairness and is workable. First, this paper introduces the principle of the electricity consumption of domain decomposition, establishes index system of power consumption domain decomposition; Second, entropy method and time-based dimension of dynamic analysis methods are introduced into the model to build the electricity consumption domain decomposition based on information entropy decomposition model. At the same time, with the initial allocation of current power consumption, the electricity consumption domain decomposition based on the Gini coefficient method decomposition model is established applied with Gini coefficient method; Finally, this paper put numerical examples to two electricity consumption domain decomposition models, decomposed the electricity consumption control target of the "12th five-Year" end to each region, comparative and analysis the differences between the two methods. The applicable results show that the decomposition method based on the information entropy can reflect the different of regions more competitive, and it is more suitable for this stage of regional economic and social development of the different case.更多还原