【作者】 杨静；

【导师】 袁家海； 张忠；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 项目管理（专业学位）， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 随着电力行业的迅速发展,配电网建设的重要性也越来越凸显。目前国家将资金投入到了配电网的建设中,我国电网的形式也开始从亏损转向盈利。配电网的发展是社会发展、国家进步的先行军,配电网项目的建设效果直接关系着国民经济的加速前进。而在配电网建设过程中,投入资金多、项目工程规模庞大、需要保障较高的可靠性、安全性等条件,导致项目建设中需要承担的风险较高。配电网建设项目的建设周期长,样本资料存在误差、不确定性强等特点,因此使得规划过程中的不确定因素很多。配电网建设项目是一项具有高度综合性和技巧性的工作,同时也是一次具有较多投入与产出、高风险的决策过程。因此需要对配电网建设项目的风险影响因素进行完善的评价后,并实施及时的防控,才能降低配电网建设项目的风险。本文通过对配电网建设项目风险管理中关键问题的研究,提出了比较完善的配电网建设项目风险管理的理论框架和方法体系。同时,配电网建设的风险管理是一个动态的过程,在项目的不同时期,风险决策的重要性也会不同,使得具体管理过程也不同。论文在建立了综合评价理论框架及其指标体系,综合考虑政策、技术、经济和管理等相关因素,针对配电网建设项目的风险情况建立基于模糊灰色评价法的风险综合评价模型,较好地解决了配电网建设项目评价中的指标和权重的科学性问题。.并以某配电网建设项目为例,对其项目风险进行了结合定性与定量指标的评价研究。通过评价结果可以看出,配电网经营企业存在着一定的风险,需要加以防控。针对配电网建设过程中种种风险因素,本文根据风险管理理论以及以往实践经验,提出相应的风险防范策略,以消除风险或减少风险因素所带来的危害。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of the power industry, the importance of the construction of distribution network is more and more prominent. At present, the country invested fund into the construction of distribution network, the power network form of China also began to shift from loss to profit. Distribution network development is a pioneer for social development and national progress, the construction effects of distribution network project directly related to the acceleration development of national economic. In distribution network building process, the magnitude of investment, the large of scale, high guarantee of the reliability, security and so on, leading to higher the risk in the project. The long construction period construction project of distribution network, samples and information errors, uncertainties, and other characteristics, thus making many uncertain factors in the planning process. Construction project of distribution network is not a highly integrated and techniques work, but also a number of inputs and outputs, high risk decision making process. Thus, required on the distribution network construction project after a complete evaluation of the risk factors, and implementing timely control, that can reduce the risk of construction project of distribution network.In this paper, through the study of key issues in risk management of the construction project of distribution network, made a perfect distribution network theoretical framework and methods for risk management system for construction project. Essay was established the framework of comprehensive evaluation theory and index system, considering factors such as economic, policy, technological and management, then making a model for the risk of distribution network construction project based on fuzzy-grey method and gives a reasonable explanation for each risk indicators. And take a distribution network construction project as an example, aim to their project risk make an evaluation study which combined qualitative and quantitative indicators. Through the evaluation results can be seen that there are certain risks in distribution enterprises, needs to be prevention and control. For the various risk factors in the construction of power distribution network, this article based on risk management theory and practical experiences in the past, offer appropriate risk prevention strategies to eliminate the risk or reduce the harm brought by the risk factors.更多还原