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制造业资产增长对业绩的滞后影响研究

The Empirical Research on the Lagged Effect of the Total Asset Growth on the Manufacturing Industry’ Performance

【作者】 马威

【导师】 方强;

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 , 会计学, 2013, 硕士

【摘要】 资产最基本的特征就是预期可能会给企业带来经济利益,根据此观点,资产的增长会导致企业未来的经济收益的增加,提高或改善企业的经营业绩。目前,虽然有多种理论从不同的角度对企业资产增长方式进行了解释,但没有对资产增加的影响进行系统的分析与研究。从当前国内外的研究来看,很少有学者对总资产增长与企业业绩的关系进行具体的研究,对滞后影响问题的研究更为稀少,仅有的研究也是停留在当期和滞后一期的假设上。企业资产增长对企业当期或者下期的经营活动必定产生影响,但该影响是否会持续?持续期有多久?影响的程度如何?本文试图通过对上述问题的回答,揭示资产及资产结构对企业经营和经营效率的的影响,为投资者正确认识企业的内在价值进行理性投资和企业管理者选择合适的资产扩张方式提供理论参考。制造业的生产能力对资产的变化相对比较明显,具有代表意义。本文采用判别法筛选出了对资产增长影响比较明显的因素,结合资产结构不同的分类方式,分别对企业的经营业绩、经营效率和经营效果建立了相应的可检验的滞后分析模型,结合我国制造业上市公司的财务报表数据,采用面板数据中的随机效应模型进行了实证分析。研究结果进一步证实了前期系列研究中“当期总资产增长对营业收入增长的影响一直持续到第四期(滞后三期),从第五期(滞后四期)开始,这种影响逐渐减弱”的观点,发现资产对销售净利率的影响在当前和滞后一期的影响最为显著,固定资产对企业业绩的影响会持续到滞后四期,当期和滞后一期的影响为显著,无形资产对企业业绩的影响程度较大,一直会持续到滞后五期,而且效果明显,说明企业的研发活动对制造业生产经营的重要性。总资产对企业的经营效率也存在滞后影响,最长影响滞后五期。在研究企业资产增长问题中,与其它学者的研究相比,本文的研究主要从两个方面进行了深化和拓展:一是在研究中考虑了滞后因素,通过阶段性的测试分析了不同阶段资产增长对企业经营业绩的影响;二是从深度上进行了扩充,不仅对部分常用指标的影响效果进行了测试,而且还添加了很多新的指标,并且以这些指标为重点,进行了新一轮的实证分析。

【Abstract】 The most basic characteristics of assets may be expected to bring benefits, economic benefits, according to this view, the growth of the assets will lead to increase in the future economic benefits, improve or improve business performance. Theory of economies of scale, enterprise expansion theory, the theory of enterprise development, assets theory only be considered from a theoretical point of growth in total assets, has no effect on total assets increased by the impact into the system analysis and research. Judging from the current domestic and international research, there is little specific research scholars on the relationship of the increase in total assets and corporate performance, the lag impact studies more scarce, the only research stay in the current and lagged of problems. The growth in total assets on the current period or operating activities have an impact, but the impact will last? The degree of impact and how? This paper study on the impact of the total assets and the asset structure of the business, a correct understanding of the intrinsic value of the enterprise rational investment and business managers select the appropriate expansion of assets to provide theoretical reference for investors.Production capacity in the manufacturing sector is more obvious changes relative to total assets, total asset growth may lead to significant changes in corporate performance. Based on this view, this paper discriminant method to filter out the more obvious factors that impact on the growth in total assets, combined with asset structure different classifications, respectively testable lag analysis of business performance, operational efficiency and operating results model, combined with China’s listed manufacturing financial statement data, the empirical analysis using panel data random effects model.The results further confirmed before a series of studies in the current total asset growth of revenue growth continued to fourth (lag phase Ⅲ), start from fifth (hysteresis four), this effect gradually weakened " point of view, the total assets of the sales margin in the current and hysteresis of a most significant fixed assets on corporate performance will continue to lag four current and lagged a significant intangible assets on corporate performance the degree of influence, has been continued to lag five, and the effect is obvious, the research and development activities of the enterprises of the importance of manufacturing operations. The total assets of the efficiency of operation of the business lagged effects, the longest affect the lag of five.In the total assets of the research enterprise, growth problems, compared with other scholars, this study mainly from two aspects of the supplement:First, the lag factors considered in the study stage test analysis the total assets of the different stages of the impact of growth on the business performance; from the depth of the expansion, not only of some commonly used indicators of the effects of the test, but also added a lot of new indicators, and these indicators focus on a new round of Theoretical and Empirical Analysis.

  • 【分类号】F275;F273.4;F424
  • 【被引频次】3
  • 【下载频次】98
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