【作者】 赵晶；

【导师】 王立坤；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业水土工程， 2013， 硕士

【副题名】以黑龙江省为例

【摘要】 水治则天下宁。水利在防洪安全、供水安全、粮食安全、经济安全和生态安全等方面具有不可替代的重要作用。水利投资的增加不仅进一步加强了水利基础设施建设，还有效地扩大了内需，带动相关产业发展，增加社会就业，为拉动经济增长做出了贡献。如何评价供水投资效果及其对国民经济产生的影响，以便合理确定投资定位与投资决策，已成为目前经济建设中重点关注问题之一。为此本文引入了CGE模型，对2007年黑龙江省投入产出表进行延长，获得黑龙江省2010年投入产出延长表，构建黑龙江CGE模型，根据黑龙江省近几年供水投资实际增长规模及“十二五”规划设计9种投资方案进行模拟分析，定量估算供水投资政策对黑龙江省宏观经济、其他部门投资、不同部门的总产出、供用水量、污水排放量及用水效益、排污效应的潜在影响。结论如下：（1）供水部门投资能拉动国民经济发展，GDP和总出口随投资增长呈上涨的趋势，创造更多的就业机会，劳动力总需求上涨，居民收入增加，消费物价指数呈现负增长。单个部门投资变动对本部门的总产出影响最大，对其他部门影响相对较弱。其他6个部门总产出变化幅度方向不同，或上升、或下降，上升的部门大小依次为高用水工业、高用水服务业、一般用水服务业、建筑业、农业，由于本论文主要关注城镇供水投资，不关注农业灌溉投资，农业部门总产出只发生了微小变化。总产出下降的部门是一般用水工业，这是由于投资的“挤占效应”产生负面影响。供水部门投资增长会拉动高用水工业和农业部门的投资，挤占一般用水工业、建筑业、一般用水服务业、高用水服务业部门的投资，而且当投资规模增长到60%时，由于投资的“挤占效应”，高用水工业和农业部门投资增长率也均为负值，即其他所有均的投资均下降，应该注意供水投资带来负面效应。（2）为保证城镇供水安全，供水投资增长率应该大于60%。用水量增长最快的是高用水工业，其次为建筑业、高用水服务业、一般用水服务业，一般用水工业用水量呈下降趋势。农业用水变化微小。污水排放量增长最快的是高用水工业，其次为高用水服务业、建筑业和一般用水服务业，一般用水工业污水排放量呈下降趋势。随着供水部门投资规模加大，高用水行业的用水及排污比重增大，而一般用水行业用水及排污比重下降，这会导致产业间用水结构的不合理，用水方式的不科学，环境污染加大，因此在考虑加大供水部门投资时，可适当提高水价和污水治理费用，抑制高用水行业用水及污水排放量，提高用水效益及污水回用率，优化产业结构，减少对环境的负效应。（3）对各部门在不同政策冲击情景下的用水排污效益进行分析，结果显示：不同部门用水效益差异巨大，效益最大是一般用水服务业，其次为高用水服务业、建筑业、一般用水工业、高用水工业、水的生产与供应业、农业。各方案下，万元增加值的用水量均呈不同程度的下降。排污效益分析结果：效益最大的是一般用水服务业，其次为高用水服务业、建筑业、一般用水工业、高用水工业、水的生产与供应业，各方案下，万元增加值的污水排放量均呈不同程度的下降。综合分析考虑，投资的适宜增长规模为60%-70%，并对模型结果进行敏感性分析，结果显示模型对各替代弹性参数的取值并不敏感。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water conservancy regulation makes the world better. conservancy has an irreplaceable role inflood security，water-supply security，food security, economic security，ecological security. Theconservancy investment not only further strengthen conservancy facilities, but also effectivelyexpand domestic demand, driving the development of related industries, increase socialemployment, contributing to the economy growth. CGE model used to evaluate the efficient ofinvestment and its influence on the national economy，determine reasonable investment orientationand investment decision-making, has used.CGE model are introduced，the papers constructs the Heilongjiang CGE model and designnine investment programs (including program restored to the original situation) according to thescale of water investment in recent years and the "twelfth five-year" plan to simulate andquantitatively estimate macro economy、other investment、different departments of total output、water supply、 water used、sewage and water use efficiency、the potential effect of drainage effectfrom different conservancy investment policy. Conclusions are as follows:（1）water-supply sector investment can boost national economic development, GDP and totalexports showed a trend of rising investment growth, creating more jobs, Labour demand rising,residents’ income increasing, the consumer price index showed negative growth. Single sectorinvestment has the greatest effect on itself total output，and relatively weak influence on otherdepartments. Output of some rise or others fall, rising sector ordered for high water industry andhigh water services, general water services, construction, agricultural。 because this paper does notinvolve the investment of agricultural irrigation water, so small changes of output have taken placein the agricultural only；output falling sector is generally water industry，because the investment"crowding out effect" have a negative effect.Investment growth of water-supply sector will pull high water industrial and agriculturalinvestment，and crowding out investment of general water industrial, construction, general waterservices, high water service sector，when the scale of investment grow to60%, investment growthrate of high water industrial and agricultural，which cause negative effect, attention should paynegative effect brought by water-supply investment.（2）To guarantee water security, the growth rate of water-supply investment should be greaterthan60%. high water industry have the fastest growing on water used，followed by high waterservices, general water services and the construction industry, water consumption of general water industrial is falling. Water used in agricultural have hardly chances due to the water supply sectorinvestment does not include the irrigation water. Sewage from high water industry have the fastestgrowing, followed by high water services, general water services and construction industry, sewagefrom general water industrial decline. With increasing water-supply investment, the proportionwater used and sewage of high water industry is more bigger, which causes the water structurebetween industry is unreasonable，more environment pollution, raising price of water and sewagedisposal can limit water used and wastewater emissions of high water industry，improve therecycling rate of sewage, optimize the industrial structure, reduce negative effects on theenvironment.（3）The impact to water use efficiency were analyzed, and the results showed that waterefficiency varies from different departments, the biggest benefit is general water services, followedby high water service industry construction、general water industry、high water industry、agriculture.The added value of ten thousand Yuan all decline. Emission efficiency analysis results: the leastsewage drainage is general water services，followed by general water industrial、construction, highwater services, high water industry, the added value of ten thousand Yuan of sewage emissions alldecline.Through comprehensive analysis，and the suitable growth scale investment of Water-supply isfrom60%to70%, and the sensitivity analysis results show that the model is not sensitive to valueof each parameter and the elasticity of substitution.更多还原