【作者】 杨峰；

【导师】 孙世群；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 环境科学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 包头市是依托矿产资源发展起来的能源型重工业城市，高消耗、高排放、高污染等问题日渐严峻。虽然“十一五”期间包头市污染总量减排取得了积极进展，由于“十二五”规划期间包头市继续面临着更加严峻的环境治理任务，本文以“十一五”规划中的得失经验为基础，从多方面分析论证了包头市大气污染物总量控制“十二五”规划及可达性。本文通过多方面的调查研究得到结论如下：（1）本文依据包头市特有的工业发展模式及经济社会发展对大气污染物SO₂、NOx及氟化物进行分行业预测。统计认为“十二五”期间，包头市SO₂新增排放量5.52万吨，NOx新增排放量为7.19万吨，氟化物排放新增量为878.4吨。（2）同时对产生上述三种污染物的主要行业的减排潜力进行进一步分析：随着“十二五”期间包头市对重点行业的技术改进和严格控制，由此可预测到2015年，二氧化硫、氮氧化物及氟化物排放量可分别控制在19.89万吨、10.20万吨、2560吨。同时得到二氧化硫排放量的最优区域分配。（3）为实现包头市“十二五”减排目标，包头市需要投入7.73亿元的专项治理资金。“十二五”末万元工业增加值SO₂、NOx分别为7.77kg/万元、5.04kg/万元，分别比2010年下降39.83%、57.29%，可以达到指标体系中下降30%的要求，因此，针对“十二五”期间包头市的环境治理规划，从技术及经济投入两方面对目标实施的可行性进行分析，提出了完成目标的保障性措施及建议。（4）在国内外总量控制的基础上，进一步完善了大气污染物总量控制的模型。并以此对包头市的大气污染物二氧化硫进行总量预测，经过计算得出：包头市SO₂大气环境容量为20.63万吨，2010年排放21.72万吨SO₂，已超过环境容量限值，但“十二五”期间实现SO₂减排后预测2015排放量为19.89万吨，表明通过SO₂环境治理可以使得SO₂排放量控制在当地大气环境容量范围内，而且该模型和实际情况吻合较好，可作为包头市环境规划和环境质量评价的理论依据，具有较好的使用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on development of mineral resources, Baotou has developed into anenergy-large-scale industry city, in which, environmental problems become moreand more serious with high consumptions, high emissions and high pollution. theair pollutant targets in emission reduction task of the Eleventh Five-year Plan hadbeen finished, and the efficiencies of environmental treatment were obvious. Due tomore severe environment improvement assignment in the Twelveth Five-year Planin baotou, this article investigated the feasibility of the total quantity control in airpollutant, which based on the experiences obtained in the Eleventh Five-year Plan.The main conclusions are as follows:（1） Baotou kept up with the State policy of atmospheric environmentaltreatment. In this article, judging by the impact of specific industrial developmentmodels as well as of economic and social development on atmospheric pollutants,SO₂, NOx and fluorides were evaluated according to sector, which was acted as alinking with the Twelveth Five-year Plan. Statistic data revealed that, during theTwelveth Five-year Plan period, the increment of SO₂, NOx and fluoride emissionswas55,200tons,71,900tons, and878.4tons respectively.（2） A further analysis of the emission reduction potentials of the sectorswhich mainly discharge SO₂was needed：during the Twelveth Five-year Planperiod, due to the technical improvement and control strengthening, it waspredicted that the emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and fluorides wasdecreased into198,900tons,1020,00tons,2560tons respectively in2015.Simultaneously the optimal region distribution of sulphur dioxide emissions wasobtained.（3） To achieve Baotou’s emission reduction targets of the Twelveth Five-yearPlan,$773million special funding was needed to invest. At the end of theTwelveth Five-year Plan, million Yuan industrial increased value in terms of SO₂and NOx was7.77kg/million Yuan and5.04kg/million Yuan, that is39.83%and57.29%lower than2010respectively, which accessed the demand of30%declinein indicators system. Therefore, aiming at environmental improvement of Baotou inthe Twelveth Five-year Plan period, with respect to both the technology and cost effectiveness, the feasibility of implementation and the relevent supportabilitymeasures were made.（4） On the basis of previous research home and abroad, the further model oftotal quantity control in air pollutants was established. And via this model, totalquantity of sulfur dioxide in air in Baotou, was calculated: the atmosphericenvironmental capacity of SO₂was206,300tons.With respect to this event, SO₂emission control should be enhanced to match the air quality standards. Fitting tothe actual situation, the model can conduct the environmental planning andevaluation of environmental quality in Baotou, as a theoretical basis with gooduseful value.更多还原