【作者】 张艳；

【导师】 陈丽丽；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2012， 硕士

【副题名】基于投入产出表的分析

【摘要】 20世纪90年代以来国际分工发生了巨大变化,很大部分国际分工由产业间分工转变到产品内分工再转变到同一产品内不同生产环节之间的分工,由此产生了一种新的贸易方式—产业内中间产品和最终产品的垂直专业化贸易。在经济全球化的浪潮下,区域合作成为近年来的新趋势。届时东亚内部成员国也意识到东亚区域合作的重要性,东亚国家之间的经济联系也越来越紧密,建立在经济沟通交流上的依存度越来越高。而在国际上,东亚内部成员国与世界上其他组织进行多边谈判时,往往缺乏亚洲国家集体的支持,在谈判中缺乏竞争力,往往会处于不利的地位。在经济全球化浪潮的席卷下,东亚内部成员国更有向外扩展的动力,东亚各国更加积极推动区域经济合作。从20世纪90年代以来,东亚各国拉开了合作的序幕。从第一次在曼谷举行的亚欧会议,到近年来中日韩自由贸易协定的协商,都展现出东亚各国积极推动区域经济一体化的决心和行动。而中国作为东亚乃至全球最大的发展中国家,在这场经济全球化的浪潮下,试图更加深入地加入世界垂直专业化分工体系,更加积极地参与东亚区域合作,利用东亚这个平台来加入世界垂直专业化分工体系。从改革开放到20世纪90年代初,中国仅限于与相关国家签订一些经济贸易协定,真正开始参与东亚区域经济合作的标志是20世纪90年代加入第一个区域经济合作组织——亚太经济合作组织(APEC),这正式开启了中国和东盟的对话。接下来中国和东亚区域合作越来越频繁,越来越紧密。中国先后和东盟、韩国、日本签订了协议,并在2010年成立了中国—东盟自由贸易区,这标志着中国和东亚的区域合作迈上了一个新的台阶。自从中国转变贸易措施,积极地参与和其他国家的贸易合作,更是凭借低廉的劳动力成本和完善的基础设施,迅速地加入东亚价值链,逐渐承接由东亚其他各国转移出来的制造加工业,成为东亚的加工厂甚至世界的加工厂。中国通过十多年来的不懈努力,独特的“中国模式”已经在产业结构上形成,—方面,在东亚地区凭借低廉的劳动成本和完善的基础设施的比较优势,不断强化与其他网络成员的生产合作,更加积极的参与到东亚区域内分工；另—方面,也转移发展重心,积极发展资本、技术密集型产业,进行产业升级。这样齐头并进的发展模式,将东亚传统的产业转移模式打破了,同时改变了东亚的梯度转移层次,形成了现在的日本-四小龙-东盟-中国新梯度转移层次,中国逐渐成为东亚区域中最重要的单一经济体。虽然中国现在已经越来越深入地参与到东亚垂直专业化分工体系中甚至一定程度上加入世界垂直专业化分工体系中,但是不能否认的是中国现在仍然处于东亚价值链和全球价值链的低端。且中国现在已经成为东亚的出口平台,导致中国和欧美为代表的发达经济体贸易顺差不断扩大。在2008年金融危机前,美国就有人认为中国的制造加工挤掉了美国国内的劳动就业岗位,为此美国频频向中国施压,单方面限制中国对美国的出口。2008年金融危机后,进入后危机时期,欧盟和美国为了减轻金融危机对本国经济的冲击,纷纷对发展中国家滥用贸易救济措施,而中国是世界上最大的发展中经济体,也是欧美重要的进口国,欧盟和美国与中国的贸易摩擦必然越演越烈。由于中国作为东亚的主要出口平台,从中国制造出口销往欧美的制成品相对比较多,所以美国在2008年金融危机后,更有理由对中国出口的制成品采取一系列的贸易保护措施。中国在2008年金融危机后出口一度受挫,中国出口贸易首次出现下滑,有些沿海中小企业受此次金融危机影响,甚至纷纷倒闭,这对中国经济和参与国际区域合作的影响是不可估量的。2008年这次金融危机对中国出口贸易甚至中国经济的巨大冲击,也暴露出我国参与国际垂直专业化分工和出口结构的一些问题,这些问题都是亟需解决的,主要表现在一下几方面,第一,中国出口贸易过于依赖欧美等发达经济体,中国的贸易出口国主要是欧盟和美国等发达经济体,对这些国家的出口量占总出口量的1/3以上；第二,对中国极有可能落入“比较优势”的分工陷阱未引起高度重视；第三,中国一直提倡的产业升级没有有的放矢。本文基于投入产出表来分析中国在东亚一体化发展程度。这里需要说明的是,本文研究所涉及的东亚是不是传统地理学意义上的东亚,不包括欧罗斯、朝鲜。仅仅只是经济学意义上的东亚,主要包括中国大陆、中国台湾、香港、澳门、东盟十国、韩国和日本。而本文则主要是综合以往学者对2008年金融危机前中国总出口和制造业分行业总出口VS比率测算结果和本文测算的2002年——2010年中国对东亚其他主要国家制造业出口VS比率的结果进行了比较分析。得到无论是在总出口上,还是在制造业分行业出口上,中国和东亚其他主要国家的VS比率在2008年金融危机前后都是总体上升的,即使在2008年金融危机后,由于出口的急剧下滑导致2009年的VS比率虽有小幅回落,但是当经济逐渐回暖,VS比率也是迅速回升的。说明中国在2008年金融危机前后都是积极主动的参与东亚区域合作的。针对中国现在所处的产业链阶段、贸易结构问题以及中国参与东亚一体化的程度,本文提出了几点建议：第一,针对中国出口贸易过于依赖欧美等发达经济体的问题,中国出口应转变为不单单依靠欧美等发达经济体,逐渐转向无论在地理还是在经济上都具有优势的东亚地区,这样可以分散中国出口面临的风险。中国应该更加深入的加入东亚区域合作,主要可以从以下三方面入手：首先,中国一东盟自由贸易区作为中国加入东亚垂直专业化分工体系的突破口,需要继续加强和巩固；其次,在东北亚地区,继续积极倡导建立中日韩贸易区。中国应该将建立中韩自由贸易区提上议程,并争取早日建立中韩自由贸易区,进而来推动建立中日韩自由贸易区；再次,要推动整个东亚区域的经济一体化,在做了前面的准备后,需要整合三个“10+1”建立东亚自由贸易区。第二,针对中国处于东亚产业链低端的事实,中国试图进行产业升级的现状,结合本文测算的VS比率,提出了应该有区别产业升级的建议。从本文测算结果得到,中国对东亚制造业分行业VS比率,始终是由通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业为代表的技术密集型制造业的VS比率最高,说明政府在促进产业结构升级的时候,应该重点支持这些产业。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the1990s,the international division of labor has tremendous changes. Much of international trade changed from inter-industry trade into intra-industry trade. Much of international trade changed from intra-industry into within product trade. In the tide of global economy, regional cooperation has become a new trend in recent years. East Asia’s member states are increasingly aware of the importance of regional cooperation in East Asia. They have more and more economic cooperation, their dependence is also more and more high. But in international negotiations, East Asia’s member states often can not effectively conduct multilateral negotiations with other organizations in the World. To change this situation, since the1990s, the East Asian countries have opened the prelude of the cooperation. From Asia-Europe Meeting held in Bangkok to Japan and South Korea free trade agreement negotiations, it shows East Asian countries actively promoting the regional economic integration of the decisions and actions. China plays the role of the largest developing country in the East Asia and the World. China tries to join more in-depth vertical specialization system in the word.By means of the world vertical specialization system platform of East Asia that we have joined in, China will take more active part in regional cooperation in East Asia. From the reform and opening up to the early1990s, China only had signed with the relational countries about economic and trade agreements, the great milestone and real beginning is that China joined the Regional Economic Cooperation Organizations at1990s, called the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC),it was formally opened the dialogue between China and ASEAN. And then, the communication and cooperation was became more and more frequent between China and ASEAN. China had signed agreements with ASEAN, Korea, Japan, and set up the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in2010, which meant the new level was coming for the cooperation between China and East Asia regional. Due to the low labor costs and improved infrastructure, China changed the trade measures and took more active part in the cooperation with the other countries, China joined quickly in the value chain in East Asia, and China got the chance to undertake the manufacturing and processing industries which had been shifted out from the other East Asian countries, so that China became one of the processing plants in East Asia and even the world’s factory. By more than10years of unremitting efforts, on the one hand, China strengthened the cooperation with other production members with the advantage of low labor costs and improved infrastructure in East Asia, and became more active participation to the East Asian regional division of labor; on the other hand, China changed the focus of the development, and started to develop the technology-intensive industries, in order to upgrade the industrial. Formation in East Asia, the Japan-Four Little Dragons-ASEAN-China’s new gradient transfer level, China is becoming the most important single economy in the East Asian region, the new gradient transfer level East Asia-Japan-Four Little Dragons-China is came out. But it is undeniable that China is still at the low end of the value chains and global value chains in East Asia. At the same time, China has become an export platform in East Asia, so that the trade spats are increasing and the trade surplus are continuing to expand between China and Europe and America.Especially, after the2008financial crisis, China’s exports declined for the first time. Some coastal medium and small businesses affected by the financial crisis, even closed down in succession. This seriously affected the Chinese economy and China’s participation in international regional cooperation process. At the same time, this exposed some of the problems that our country exports and participation in international division of labor. On one hand, China’s export trade is too dependent on developed economies, especially United States、European Union and Japan; On the other hand, China has no specific industry upgrade. To this, this article in view of the Chinese problem, offered brief policy proposal.更多还原