农业产业投资基金的投资风险评估研究

【作者】 高敏；

【导师】 岳意定；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 金融学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 农业是国民经济的基础,农业产业化是我国近年来改造传统农业的重要途径之一。然而,在大力推进农业产业化的进程当中,资金支持不足成为了制约产业化深入发展的主要瓶颈。作为一种全新的金融创新机构,农业产业投资基金可以将农业产业投资和资本市场融资有机结合起来,为农业企业和农业基础产业项目提供资金支持。当前我国的农业产业投资基金设立尚处于起步探索的初级阶段,农业产业投资基金的设立研究是一个宏大的研究课题,本文理论联系实际,选择农业企业/项目的风险评估研究为切入点,尝试为农业产业投资基金的顺利设立和健康运行提供理论支持。文章首先界定了农业产业化投资基金投资风险的内涵,阐述了投资农业企业的风险来源及特征。然后,利用流程图分析的方法深入挖掘了影响投资成败的风险事件及其风险因素。将农业企业分为农林种植类、渔牧养殖类和食品加工类三种类型。通过文献参阅、实地调研等方式,挖掘三类农业企业所具备的特殊风险特征。在此基础上,构建了评估农业企业投资风险的指标体系,该指标体系分为三个层次,其中第二层次包括了管理风险在内的七类风险指标。值得注意的是,本文首先构建了一个覆盖所有风险因素的共性指标体系,然后进一步为三种不同类型的企业分别构建了科学合理的指标体系。其后,采用模糊层次综合分析法建立了农业产业投资基金针对农业企业进行投资的投资风险评估模型,其中各指标权重的设定是依据层次分析法而计算的；企业的模糊评价结果是农业产业投资基金的投资决策者等农企专家。基于这样的评估结果,本文简单探索了投资方式等决策问题。然后以常德润农茶油有限公司为对象进行了案例分析,首先按照流程图分析法发掘投资于常德润农的投资风险因素；然后通过专家为不同指标给出模糊评价,利用前文所建立的风险评估模型,计算得到该公司的投资风险评价向量为(0.13640.12010.18600.23100.3265),按照1分制处理后,其风险评估结果为0.2235,即该公司的风险程度为“风险很低”,这可以作为投资该公司的依据之一。最后总结了本文的研究结论,并展望了下一步的研究方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy. In recent years, with the development of science and technology and the support of government policies, agricultural industrialization gradually becomes an important way for transforming traditional agriculture into modernization in our country. However, during the government making great efforts to promote agricultural industrialization, shortage of funds becomes the most important bottleneck which restricts the industrialization of agriculture. As a new financial innovation system, the Agricultural Industrialization Investment Fund can combine agricultural industrialization investment and capital market financing together efficiently, and provide funds for agriculture enterprise and agriculture industry project. By now, the agricultural industrial investment fund in our country is still in the initial stage, and the establishment of investment funds research is a grand research subject. This article links theory with practice, and chooses agricultural enterprises/project risk assessment study as the breakthrough point, trying to provide theoretical support for the successfully setting up and healthy operation of the agricultural industrial investment funds.In the basic of the development of industrial investment funds at home and abroad and the agriculture enterprise characteristics of our country, firstly this paper defines what the investment risk of agriculture investment fund is, and describes the resource and characters of investment risk. Then with the Flow Chart Method, we expound the risk factor of investment risk during the investment. Through the analysis of the present situation of the development of agriculture in our country, this paper defines the agriculture enterprise which is the research object of this paper, and divides them into three types which are forestry of planting, fishery of breeding and food processing. Through the literatures and investigations, this paper summarizes the characteristics of agricultural enterprise into seven specific aspects, which are compared with other industries, and then analyzes the three different kinds of agriculture enterprise separately, as they have difference from common agricultural enterprise characteristic. On this basis, this paper identifies the risks of investment while investing agriculture enterprise and summaries them into seven kinds. Then, this paper constructs the index system for evaluating investment risk for the three different kinds of agriculture enterprise respectively, and the index system is divided into three levels, in which the second level indexes includes the above8kinds of risk. What is necessary to point out is that, this paper builds an index system covering all risk factors firstly, and then considering different kind of enterprises have different risks, this paper builds another three scientific and rational index systems further for the three kinds of enterprise respectively. Thereafter, with the methods of Fuzzy Comprehensive Hierarchy Process (FAHP), this paper sets up a risk assessment model for measuring investment risk for agricultural industrial investment funds. In the model, the weight of the indexes is calculated by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Based on the evolution result, this paper discusses the way of investment.Then, this paper chooses Chang De Run Nong Co., LTD as an object and does case analysis. Firstly, this paper expounds the risk factor of investment risk if we invest to Chang De Run Nong. And then, some experts gives scores of the different indexes, and with the above model, we calculate the risk evaluation vector is (0.13640.12010.18600.23100.3265). When we calculate it by1point, its score of risk is0.2235. From the result, we can find that the risk condition of this firm is "low risk", that is to say, an Agricultural Industrialization Investment Fund could invest to it. The case research shows that the index system and evaluation model are scientific and reasonable.The conclusions of this paper are arrived at last, and this paper also proposes the next research direction.更多还原