【作者】 张蕾；

【导师】 李夏苗；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 高速铁路客流分析与预测是高速铁路运输组织工作的重要内容,是指导铁路运营部门科学制定旅客运输计划,合理设计客运产品的主要依据,也是提高高速铁路客运市场竞争力的重要保障。但在客运量预测方面,既有研究主要侧重单一站点或客运总量方面的预测分析,较少涉及一定区域内所有站点之间的客流状态,而运营组织需要掌握一定区域上所有站点之间的客流状态。本文在借鉴国内外既有研究的基础上,分析了武广高铁的运营现状,客流的时空特征及变化规律,并结合中国高速铁路运营实际,总结了客流预测分析的一般流程与方法,论证了OD矩阵反推技术的适应性,提出了一种基于OD矩阵反推技术的短期客流预测方法。论文主要工作包括以下4个方面：(1)基于武广高铁实际的运营实际,总结了武广高铁开通后的运输组织及运营效果,运用RP调查方法对武广高铁所吸引旅客的出行行为特征进行分析,归纳总结了武广高铁客流的时空分布特征,分析了日常和节假日客流的变化规律,得出日常客流具有以周为周期的周期性,以及节假日对日常客流的影响周期。(2)针对高速铁路独特的运营机构,建立了一种新的高速铁路短期客流预测流程——基于OD反推的短期客流预测方法,以避免统计工作的复杂性。更进一步地,通过ARIMA乘积季节模型对具有以周为周期的武广高铁的车站上下车人数进行了预测。(3)分别采用基于马尔科夫链的估计、贝叶斯推理和结构化模型对原始矩阵进行了估计。运用有序加权平均算子,将三种算法的求解结果按照降序排列,然后分别运用极大熵优化模型权重计算方法、BADD-OWA权重计算方法和基于均值相似度的权重计算方法求解出综合加权的OD矩阵。最后对武广高铁的客流OD矩阵进行估计,并对估计结果进行范数误差检验。(4)基于以上对武广高铁开通运营之后的运营状况、客流特征以及客流变化规律等方面的分析,以高速铁路的发展要求为标准,系统提出了武广高铁发展过程中的对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Analysis on high-speed railway passenger flow and prediction of high-speed railway passenger flow were one of the important contents for the work of high-speed railway’s transportation organization, which was not only the main basis for guiding operations of high-speed railway make the development of passengers’transport planning scientifically and designe for product of passenger traffic, but also the major guarantee of raising high-speed railway’s competence in the market of passenger transport. In terms of passenger flow forecasting, previous studies focused mainly on a single sation or the total passenger flow forecastting. Therefore the state of passenger flow among all sations in certain areas were less invovled, but the transportation organization departmentneed needed to master of them.Draw on existing research at home and abroad,the article analyzed the operational status, the spatial and temporal characteristics and the changing regulation of the passenger about the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway. Combined with the actual situation of the operation of high-speed railway in China, a new method of passenger flow forecasting was propased through summarizing the actual processes and methods of analysis on passenger flow forecasting and the applicability of the backstepping technique of OD matrix, which was based on the backstepping technique of OD matrix. The paper focused on such issues from the following aspects:First, the transport organizations and operating results of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway were summed up based on it’s passenger flow data. Then the behavior characteristics of passengers’ travel about the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway were analyzed using RP survey methodology. After that, this paper summarized spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the the passerger flow and the change rule of daily passenger flow and holidays passenger flow of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway.It obtained weekday passenger had a weekly cycle and the holiday to the daily passenger flow had an influence cycle.Then, for unique operation organization of high speed railway, a new high-speed railway passenger flow short-time forecasting process had been established which was based on data results of OD matrix estimation in order to avoid the complexity of the statistical work. Furthermore, number of passengers getting on and getting off at the stations of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway were predicted though ARIMA froduct seasonal model.Next, the original matrix were estimated by using the Markov chain estimation model, the Bayesian estimation model and the structural model respectively. After puting the results of solution of the above three algorithms in descending order by using of the OWA operator, comprehensive weighted OD matrix was work out by using of the calculation method the weight of the maximum entropy optimization model, the BADD-OWA and the mean similarity respectively. Finaly, with the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway as an example, the paper estimated it’s current state of passenger flow OD matrix, and then the estimated results had been inspected by norms.The final stage of the study, taking the development of high-speed rail as a standard,the paper gived corresponding countermeasures and recommendations about Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway in operation management, based on the above analysis of the operational status, the passenger characteristics and the changes in passenger flow since the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway had began operating.更多还原