【作者】 刘志；

【导师】 麻林巍； 马丙增；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 动力工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 我国经济、社会快速发展，能源消费总量巨大且持续快速增长，导致能源供应以及生态环境保护的压力不断加大，可持续发展面临着前所未有的挑战。核电单机容量大、设备利用小时数高，发电过程中基本不产生常规污染物和排放二氧化碳，是一种优质清洁能源，是我国近中期增加清洁能源供应和向未来低碳能源平稳过渡的重要技术选择。然而未来，尤其2030年前，我国核电究竟应该发展多大的规模和应主要采取何种技术等问题，在目前还存在一些争议。本文将核电的发展规模及技术选择问题理解为系统工程问题，尝试采用系统分析的方法，对2030年前我国核电的发展规模及技术选题问题开展研究和探讨，试图揭示其中隐含的一些重要的影响因素及其内在关联规律。首先，从宏观能源系统可持续发展的角度，分析了核电在其中的作用与地位，以及宏观能源系统可持续发展对核电提出的基本要求。其次，从电力系统可持续发展的角度，分析了影响核电未来发展的主要因素，并基于电力供需平衡，运用情景分析的方法，设计和分析了我国核电的装机规模的多种可能情景。第三，从核电系统可持续发展的角度，分析了核电技术选择的多种可能路线，并以事故发生频率和总基本投资作为主要指标，对2030年不同路线下整体核电的事故发生概率和总投资进行了估算，对各种情景进行了综合比较。最后，还从铀资源高效利用的角度，对二代核电机组的热效率、燃料消耗和影响因素进行了初步的计算和分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 With rapid socio-economic development in China, the huge and ever increasingenergy consumption brings huge pressure on energy supply and environmentprotection, and brings unprecedentedly challenges to China’s sustainabledevelopment.With large unit capacity, high loading factor, and near zero conventionalemissions and carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear power has become an importanttechnical solution for increasing clear energy supply in the near-and mid-term andrealizing a smooth transition to low-carbon economy in the future for China. However,it is still debated how much nuclear power capacity we should build and what kind ofnuclear power technology we should adopted in the future, especially before2030.This paper treats the problem as a system engineering problem, employssystematic analysis method to analyze and discuss the development scale andtechnology choice of China’s nuclear power up to2030, and tries to reveal the majorinfluencing factors and the underlying relationships. Firstly, from the perspective ofthe sustainable development of macro energy system, we analyze the function andposition of nuclear power and the requirements by sustainable development. Then,from the perspective of the sustainable development of power system, we analyze themajor influencing factors of nuclear power development, and analyze severalscenarios of nuclear power capacity before2030based on the balance of powersupply and consumption. Thirdly, from the perspective of the sustainabledevelopment of nuclear power system, we designed various routes of nuclear powertechnology development, and analyze and compare several scenarios using theaccident frequency and total investment as the main indicators. In the final part, fromthe perspective of the effiecnt use of uranium energy, we also analyze the thermaleffiency, fuel consumption, and the influencing factors of a nuclear power plant.更多还原