【作者】 蔡静静；

【导师】 董正信；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 统计学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪末以来,在科技进步与经济全球化浪潮的推动下,许多国家正经历从工业经济向服务经济转变的发展阶段,现代服务业正蓬勃发展。服务业不再是“边缘化的或奢侈的经济活动”,它在经济发展中的“黏合剂”作用越来越突出。本文首先通过对西方发达国家服务业发展情况的研究揭示了服务业发展的特征和一般规律：服务业内部结构的变化是随需求的变化和技术条件的变化而变化的,服务业内部部门之间和行业之间存在着相互联系。资金密集、技术密集型服务行业在服务业经济中的地位和作用不断攀升,此类行业提供的净资产值和总产值数额迅速增大。其次,利用描述性统计分析,通过图表简单明了的表现了服务业与经济增长之间的相互关系；通过描述组变量与组变量之间相关性的典型相关检验方法,对服务业结构变化与经济增长关系进行检验,发现两者之间存在高度的相关关系；再其次,本文通过格兰杰因果检验和协整检验,对服务业与经济增长关系的因果关系和平稳性进行了检验,服务业结构的变动与经济增长之间呈现互为因果的关系且两者之间的协整关系成立。最后,针对上文实证研究中得出的结论,提出了相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the end of the 20th century, driven by the scientific and technological progress and economic globalization, many countries are experiencing from an industrial economy to a service economy changing stage of development, the development of modern service industry is booming. The services sector is no longer a "luxury marginalized or economic activities" which is play the role of the "glue" in economic development.In this paper, first of all, through the development of Western developed countries reveals the characteristics of development of the service industry and the general law:The changes in the internal structure of the service industry change with the demand conditions and technology changes, within the service sector between departments and industry are closely interrelated, the status and role of capital-intensive and technology-intensive service industries in the service economy are rising, the net asset value and the amount of GDP of such industries increased rapidly. Second, the use of descriptive statistical analysis, Through simple charts showing the economic growth of the service and the relationship. Used the typical testing to describe the group of variables associated with the group of variables. With this method to test the relationship between structural changes in the service industry and economic growth. Found that between these two variables there is a high degree of correlation. In this paper, followed by Granger causality test and the cointegration test, the service industry and the causal relationship between economic growth and stability have been tested. Changes in the structure of the service sector and economic growth shows the relationship between cause and effect. At last, aim at the preceding context substantial evidence research in the conclusion, put forward the related policy suggestion.更多还原