【作者】 刘冰；

【导师】 周炳海； 罗旭；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 物流工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 照明行业是我国的传统行业,对我国的经济发展起着举足轻重的作用。飞利浦亚明照明有限公司在该行业中处于领军地位。随着国际国内经济的迅猛发展,公司的管理也在进行着不断调整,以符合业务发展的需要。众所周知,市场竞争早已不是单纯意义上的企业产品竞争,而是运营机制和供应链的竞争。优良的供应链运作水平可以为企业带来健康的现金流,降低企业运作成本,提高企业服务水平,从而让企业在市场的惊涛骇浪中立于不败之地。预测是根据历史的记录和现在的信息来推测未来的状况。需求预测是供应链运作的起点,准确的需求预测是保证供应链良好运作的关键,虽然在预测中有许许多多的不确定性和限制因素,我们仍然应该坚持在实践中探索科学的预测方法,采用科学的预测系统来进行需求预测。飞利浦照明是全球著名的照明产品供应商。飞利浦亚明照明有限公司(以下简称飞亚)又是飞利浦照明在中国的主要生产基地之一。本文通过分析飞亚供应链所供应成品的需求预测数据找到合适的预测模型,并以供应链的APO系统上线项目为背景开展研究工作,从业务和技术的角度对照明产品需求预测以及与生产部门的链接方式和流程作探讨。在收到飞利浦销售机构的需求预测和订单后,飞亚生产基地将按照按单生产的原则安排生产计划,按照需求预测进行采购周期较长的材料的准备。因此,在现实运作中,由于预测信息的不准确和其他种种原因,材料库存较高,占库存总量的七成多,还常常有呆滞材料库存的发生。本文将结合现有MRP系统的运作机制,在通过对MRP原理的充分理解和功能开发研究的基础上,分析物料需求计划子系统的运作模式,探讨物料库存控制的方法。综上所述,本文将根据飞利浦亚明照明有限公司所实施的库存控制项目和EPR系统上线项目对照明产品的需求预测和物料控制方法作探讨和研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Lighting industry is the traditional industry of our country and plays an important role in the development of the state economy. Philips & Yaming Lighting Co., Ltd leads this industry in China. With the booming internal and external economy, the management in the company is being adjusted to get accustomed to the business development. As we all know, market competition has not been the products competition only since long time ago but the management and supply chain competition. Excellent supply chain operation will bring the company healthy cash flow and lower the operational cost and increase the service level.Forecast is to foresee the future status by studying the historical record and current information. Demand forecast is the starting point of supply chain management and appropriate demand forecast is the key for ensuring proper supply chain operation. Though there are various uncontrollable and uninsurable elements during forecasting process, we should still insist exploring scientific forecasting method and making use of the scientific forecasting system to do demand forecast. Philips Lighting Co., Ltd is a famous lighting products supplier in the global.Philips & Yaming Lighting Co., Ltd (P&Y) is one of the main production bases of Philips Lighting Co., Ltd in China. This article aims at finding out appropriate demand forecasting model for P&Y products and studying the linkage technology and process of B2B supply chain management way based on the APO system installation project.After getting the demand forecast and orders from the commercial groups, P&Y plans the production based on MTO methodology and prepare the materials especially with long lead time based on the supply forecast. Therefore, in practice due to inappropriate demand forecast and other various reasons material stock level is always high and covers more than 70% of our total inventory value. Further, aging stock often occurs. This article will make analysis on current material planning operation module based on MRP running methodology and try to find better material inventory control way.In all, this article will study the lighting products demand forecast module and material inventory control way with the background of P&Y inventory control project and APO system installation project.更多还原