【作者】 张博；

【导师】 郑思齐；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较强,不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,交易量是住房流动性的宏观反映,其波动在一定程度上反映了市场流动性水平的大小。因此,有必要引入住房流动性指标,并与价格指标相结合,更加有效地进行市场预警。本文对上述问题进行了分析和探讨,有较强的理论和现实意义。论文分别从微观和宏观两个角度系统梳理了现有的住房流动性度量指标,并进行比较分析。为了改善现有流动性宏观度量指标没有控制交易样本异质性的缺陷,本文设计了基于微观样本的住房流动性指数,并进行了实证估计,分析其与已有的流动性度量指标的关系。在此基础上,本文设计了一种利用住房流动性指数对未来住房价格变化进行预警的方法:该方法通过测算在一定流动性水平下,未来房价上涨超过某一临界值的概率,实现价格预警。最后,考虑到单纯的价格指数会低估住房市场的波动程度,本文探索性地设计了一种通过始终固定流动性水平不变来观察房价变化的的指数——经流动性调整的住房价格指数,该指数综合反映了住房流动性和住房价格的变化,能更好反映住房市场景况。实证研究结果表明:①通过控制住房异质性建立的住房流动性指数,相比于已有的度量指标,能够更准确的度量住房市场流动性水平;②住房流动性指数能够有效的预测未来价格上涨幅度超过某一临界值的概率,经检验,预测正确率高达80%;③经流动性调整的住房特征价格指数能够更好的反映住房市场景况,且与人们对市场的判断一致。论文建议推广住房流动性指数,并将其与住房价格指数一起作为反映住房市场景况的指标,重视经流动性调整的住房价格指数的编制,可以将其作为住房市场监控的综合指标。本论文的研究成果为相关政府部门监测和预警商品住房市场景气状况提供了新的思路和方法,也为中国住房流动性学术研究积累了新的实证证据。更多还原

【Abstract】 During recent years the instability of housing market in most Chinese cities has been strong, which is reflected not only in the rapid changes in housing prices but also in the much volatility in housing transactions, a macro indicator of housing liquidity. It is then necessary to introduce indices of liquidity, combined with price indicators, into the research on housing market in order to explain and forecast its performance more efficiently.The paper systematically summarizes and compares the existing indicators of housing liquidity. To remedy their defect of failure to avoid heterogeneity of trade samples, a new housing liquidity index that depends on the microscopic samples is introduced as well as studied in relationship with existing measurement indices of liquidity. Furthermore, a method is improved on basis of such index to forecast the changes in housing prices. In this method, the possibility that housing price will exceed a threshold under certain level of liquidity is calculated to realize specific function of alarm. Besides, the housing hedonic price index with liquidity correction is put forward in the last part of the paper, which is a comprehensive reflection of housing liquidity and price.The empirical results indicate that, 1) housing liquidity index with housing heterogeneity controlled is a more reliable measurement of housing liquidity; 2) housing liquidity index efficiently predicts the probability that the range of rise in housing price will surpass a threshold, as is confirmed by accuracy of 80 percents in additional forecast examination; 3) the liquidity corrected housing hedonic price, reflecting both housing price and liquidity, is more consistent with housing market performance and in better accordance with people’s expectations on market.The result of this research provides policy-makers a new idea and method in supervision and forecast of housing market conditions, and at the same time contributes to the accumulation of empirical evidence for academic research on housing liquidity in China.更多还原