【作者】 刘强；

【导师】 周建中；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 水文学与水资源， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 长江三峡工程是当今世界上最大水利枢纽工程,在防洪、发电、航运中发挥着巨大的综合效益,因此防洪减灾工作尤其重要[1]。本文首先介绍了洪水预报软件在国内外发展状况及研究趋势,针对三峡流域水库洪水预报的实际工程问题,研究并解析了三峡区间流域自然地理条件、暴雨和洪水特性,改进了原来的三水源新安江模型,同时使用了SIMHYD、API降雨径流预报等多种模型,建立了水文预报模型库,耦合了卡尔曼滤波[2]、多阶自回归和洪水预报误差时序分配实时校正技术,设计了水文预报专用数据库,开发完成了三峡水库洪水预报系统。三峡水库洪水预报系统软件功能强大、用户界面友善、易于操作。整个系统集成了水文信息查询与管理、水文预报模型库和水文预报专用数据库模块等几个主要部分。水文信息查询与管理模块能够实现水文数据信息实时查询功能,并将这些数据存入水文预报专用数据库,为水文数据快速检索和实时水文模型预报提供了有力的数据支持。水文预报模型库模块由多种径流预报模型组成,其中改进的具有物理机制的分布式新安江模型、SIMYHYD模型、API降雨径流单位线模型等能够对三峡的入库流量进行准确的预报,其一天内综合预报精度在95%以上,并引入气象卫星、雷达测雨等先进的数值天气预报方法预报降水,突破了原来洪水预报的预见期取决于流域的汇流时间的约束,使得现有三峡水库洪水预报的预见期由原来的5天延长至7天。为防洪减灾和发电调度提供了充分的决策时间,进而提高了社会效益和经济效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Three Gorges Project is the world’s largest water control project in flood control, power generation, shipping, playing a great comprehensive benefits, so flood control efforts are particularly important[1]. This paper introduces the flood forecasting software in the domestic and international developments and research trends, for the Three Gorges reservoir flood basin practical engineering problems, research and analytical range of the Three-Gorges valley natural and geographical conditions, heavy rain and flooding characteristics, improving the original Xin’anjiang three-source model, using the SIMHYD model, API rainfall-runoff forecasting model, the establishment of a hydrological forecasting model library, the coupling of the Kalman filter[2], multi-order autoregressive and temporal distribution of real-time flood forecast error correction technology, design of hydrological prediction dedicated database, developers completed the Three Gorges reservoir flood forecasting system.Three Gorges reservoir flood forecasting system software, powerful, user-friendly interface, easy to operate. The entire system integrates hydrological information query and management, hydrological forecasting and hydrological forecasting model base-specific database module, and several other main parts. Hydrological information query and management module enables real-time hydrological data and information inquiry function, and these data into a hydrological forecasting dedicated database for fast retrieval and real-time hydrological forecasting hydrological models provide a powerful data support. Hydrological forecasting model library modules from a variety of runoff forecasting model, of which improve the physical mechanisms that have distributed Xin’anjiang model, SIMYHYD model, API unit hydrograph rainfall-runoff models to the inbound traffic on the Three Gorges accurate forecasts, its comprehensive forecast accuracy above 95% of one day, and the introduction of weather satellites, radar, rain gauge, and other advanced methods of numerical weather prediction forecast rainfall, breaking the original period of flood forecast depends on the watershed of the predicted convergence of the time constraints, making the existing flood forecasting in the Three Gorges Reservoir foreseeable period from 5 days to 7 days. For flood control and power generation scheduling provides a full decision-making time, thereby increasing the social and economic benefits.更多还原