【作者】 姜微；

【导师】 尹少华；

【作者基本信息】 中南林业科技大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 林业是国民经济的重要组成部分,是由社会分工而独立出来的,是具有多种功能和多效益的综合性产业部门。湖南是一个森林资源比较丰富的省份,把湖南建成为一个林业强省,实现湖南林业生态、社会和经济效益全面发展,依赖于湖南林业经济有效增长。而产业结构与经济增长的关系密不可分,只有合理的产业结构才能有效刺激经济增长。合理的林业产业结构也同样是湖南经济有效增长的根本。林业产业结构应该如何发展,才能最大程度的利用现有的资源条件,使湖南省的经济实现可持续的科学发展,这是本文所要探讨的核心问题。首先介绍了产业结构和林业产业结构的概念；综述了国内外林业产业结构研究的现状；然后对林业产业结构研究的理论基础做了分析；总结了林业产业结构研究方法和模型,为后续湖南林业产业结构研究奠定了基础。本研究注重理论研究与实证分析相结合,运用灰色关联分析理论对湖南林业产业结构进行了层层剖析。首先运用静态地定性分析方法,分析了湖南省林业产业结构的现状,发现其中不合理的地方,然后运用动态的定量分析方法,计算不同时段林业三次产业之间及其各产业内部的灰色关联度,通过运用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测理论对湖南省未来4年进行预测,得出湖南省林业产业的发展从“一、二、三”向“二、三、一”发展的趋势。在此分析的基础上得出影响湖南林业产业结构的因素,提出了湖南省林业产业结构调整与优化途径。(1)林业第一产业重视林木资源培育的发展(2)林业第二产业优化产业结构,巩固发展支柱产业(3)林业第三产业加大对以森林旅游为主的新兴产业的培育。更多还原

【Abstract】 Being one importantand self-developed section of social economy, forestry industries become one important part with a variety of functions and multiples benefits.Hunan province has rather abundant forest resources.lt relies on Hunan province’s forestry economy development, which makes Hunan to be a powerful province in forestry,and attaining the full-scale development in the ecology’s forestry.The relations of the industrial structure can effectively stimulate the economy increasing.The rational forestry industrial structure in Hunan is the same to the economy increasing of Hunan forestry. The fragility of ecosystem in Hunan makes its industrial development different with other cities. So how to progress in harmony with resource and environment for Hunan economy is the main topic of the thesis.The article first introduces the industrial structure and the forestry industrial structure concept, and summarizes the present research situation of domestic forestry industrial structure, then analyzes theoretical base of forestry industrial structure research, finally summarizes the industrial structure research technique and the model, all those are on the foundation for the following Hunan province forestry industrial structure reseach.This research pays attentiong to the fundament research and the real diagnosis analysis,using the gray concern degree theory analyzed deeply the Hunan forestry industrial structure. The paper adopts static and qualitative analysis methods to analyze the current situation of forestry industrial structure in Hunan province,and through the analysis,unreasonable facts are listed.And then,it adopts dynamic and quantiative analysis methods to calculate gray concern degree in different stage and analyze developing trends of Hunan forestry industry structure.4 years will carry on the forecast next through the utilization grey model GM(1,1) prediction theory to Hunan Province, will obtain the Hunan Province forestry industry the development from "one, two, three" to approach "two, three, one" the development tendency. Obtains in this analysis’s foundation affects Hunan forestry industrial structure the factor, proposed the Hunan Province forestry industry restructure and the optimized way. (1)forestry primary industry takes the forest resources cultivation the development(2) forestry second industry transform outmoded habit and custom, develops the pillar industry(3) forestry tertiary industry to enlarge consolidated to by the forest traveling emergent industry cultivation primarily更多还原