【作者】 刘杰；

【导师】 金喜在；

【作者基本信息】 东北师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,中美两国对全球贸易发展影响十分巨大,在国际经济界被公认为推动世界经济增长的两大引擎。中美两国虽然处在不同发展阶段,但经济互补性很强,建交以来,两国贸易关系迅速发展,贸易总额不断攀升。目前,中国已成为美国第一大进口市场,美国更成为中国第二大贸易伙伴国。中美两国日益密切的贸易往来极大地推动了中国的经济增长,同时导致中国对美国经贸依赖程度日益加深,主要体现在中国对美国贸易依存度不断升高。贸易依存度是衡量一国经济对国际市场的依赖程度的重要指标,是指国家在一定时期内(通常是指一年)进出口总额与其国内生产总值之比。近年来,中国对美国贸易依存度由1997年的5.14%飘升至2006年的9.88%。目前,美国经济受金融危机冲击,国内需求放缓,消费者信心不足,中国受此影响必然导致对美出口贸易增速出现减缓。为了尽早减轻中国进出口贸易对美国的严重依赖,降低中国深入参与经济全球化带来的经济风险,本文采用理论与实际相结合的方法,在对中美间贸易关系,尤其是中美贸易依存度分析的基础上,对中美贸易依存度过高的原因及给我国经济带来的风险进行了系统阐述,并据此提出了相应的政策建议。本文共分为六个部分：引言,对外贸易依存的理论综述,中美贸易依存度的的测度与实证分析,中美贸易依存度过高的原因,中美贸易依存度过高给我国经济带来的风险,对中美贸易依存度的政策建议。第一部分：引言。这一部分简要介绍了选题的背景及意义、国内外相关的研究综述以及本文的研究内容。第二部分：对外贸易依存的理论综述。这一部分介绍了相关的国际贸易基本理论及外贸依存度高低的影响因素。第三部分：中美贸易依存度的的测度与实证分析。包括中美贸易发展概况及特征分析和中美贸易依存度测算与分析。第四部分：中美贸易依存度过高的原因。一共包含八个方面：中国对外贸易的增长速度明显高于GDP的增长速度,经济全球化的影响,美国产业大规模向中国转移,真实汇率的影响,中国的出口导向战略,内需不足,加工贸易比重过大,我国GDP构成差异导致数据统计存在误差。第五部分：中美贸易依存度过高给我国经济带来的风险。阐述了五个方面,分别为：加剧中美之间的贸易摩擦,威胁我国经济安全,使我国企业面临经营风险,增大国家财政的不稳定性和脆弱性,增大我国的就业风险。第六部分：对中美贸易依存度的政策建议。阐述了六个方面：努力扩大内需,实施市场多元化战略,大力发展现代服务贸易,推进我国加工贸易产业结构升级,鼓励企业对外直接投资,完善人民币汇率形成机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, China and US have a huge impact on global trade development, and they have been widely recognized as the two engines to promote world economic growth. Although the two countries are at different stages of development, their economies are highly complementary. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, trade relations have been rapidly developed with the trade volume rising successively. At present, China has become America’s largest import resources, and the United States is China’s second largest trading Partner.The trading relationship between China and US is getting increasingly close, which is a strong impetus to China’s economic growth, and at the same time deepens China’s trade dependence on the US economy. It is mainly reflected by the fact that China’s trade dependence ratio to US is soaring. Trade dependence ratio, the ratio of a country’s import and export volume to its GDP in the Period of time(usually one year), is an important indicator of a country’s economic dependence on international markets. In 1997, China’s trade dependence ratio to US is only 5.14%; then till 2006, it has soared to 9.88%. Currently, however, the US economy is in deep financial crisis, leading to the stagnancy in domestic demand and lack of consumer confidence. China’s export will be inevitably affected by US, which will lead to lower export growth, thereby impact China’s economic growth.In order to reduce China’s trade dependence on US, to reduce the economic risks brought by China’s deep involvement in globalization, on the analysis of China-US trade relations, especially on China’s trade dependence ratio to US, this article adopts theoretical and practical application and expatiates the reasons and risks for China’s high trade dependence ratio to US and accordingly makes the corresponding policy recommendations.This article includes six parts:foreword, theory summarization of FTD, measure and positive analysis of China’s trade dependence ratio to US, cause of China’s high trade dependence ratio to US, China’s economic Risks brought by the change of China’s trade dependence ratio to US, policy recommendations.Part one:Foreword. This part simply introduces the study background, meaning, research results by scholars at home and abroad and the main content of the article.Part two:Theory summarization of FTD. This part includes the correlative basic theories of international trade and the influencing factors.Part three:measure and positive analysis of China’s trade dependence ratio to US. This part introduces the development and characters of trade between China and US and the calculation and analysis of China’s trade dependence ratio to US. Part four: cause of China’s high trade dependence ratio to US. There are eight aspects: China’s international trade growth rate is higher than that of China’s GDP, influence of the economic globalization, large-scale industrial transfer from American to China, influence of real exchange rate, China’s export-led strategy, deficiency of domestic demand, over-large proportion of processing trade, difference in the composing of GDP.Part five:China’s economic risks brought by the change of China’s trade dependence ratio to US. There are five aspects:aggravating trade friction between China and US, threatening the economic safety, resulting in Chinese enterprises operating risks, enlarging instability and frangibility of the finance, enlarging employment risk.Part six:policy recommendations to China’s high trade dependence ratio to US. This part expatiates six stratagems in total:enlarging the domestic demand, developing the serving trade energetically, advancing the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, encouraging foreign direct investment, perfecting the RMB exchange rate forming mechanism.更多还原