节点文献
基于轨迹交叉理论的烟花爆竹生产模糊层次评价方法研究
Based on the Theory of Fireworks Crossover Fuzzy Evaluation Method of Production
【作者】 刘云;
【导师】 王保民;
【作者基本信息】 中北大学 , 安全技术及工程, 2010, 硕士
【摘要】 烟花爆竹行业是我国的一项传统产业,不仅给人们带来了欢乐与和祥,也对国家经济发展做出了自己的贡献,但与此同时,由于烟花爆竹生产的固有危险性,其安全问题也是备受关注。为有效减少烟花爆竹生产企业事故的发生,安全评价无疑可以起到巨大的作用。在本论文中,分析了我国烟花爆竹生产企业现状,针对现在实际评价中存在的一些不足,建立起一种符合实际需求的评价体系,并在实践中获得了较好的评价效果。1、在论文中首先介绍了国内外安全评价的发展历程以及对烟花爆竹行业产生的影响,并深入分析了我国烟花爆竹行业面临的安全问题,探讨安全评价对促进该行业健康发展的必要性。2、结合安全评价实际,对烟花爆竹生产企业危险有害因素进行较全面的分析,并总结这些危险有害因素对企业安全的影响。3、在对烟花爆竹生产企业进行评价的过程中,常用的评价方法主要是安全检查表法、事故树分析法等,并对重大危险源进行辨识和计算,本文在充分比较各评价方法存在的优缺点的基础上,力求从企业整体安全程度出发,基于人-机-环轨迹交叉理论,结合企业安全管理体系,采用模糊数学和层次分析的方法,构建了模糊层次评价的方法,对企业整体安全情况及可能发生事故的概率进行量化评价,科学直观,使评价的结果更加客观公正,有利于评价人员和企业本身把握企业的安全现状及提高空间。4、在实际评价的过程中,针对大多数事故是由于管理的疏忽和缺陷而造成的事实,提出企业安全管理诊断的建议,在评价中提高安全管理的权重,以使企业更加重视安全管理的作用。
【Abstract】 Fireworks industry is one of our traditional industries, not only bring the joy and auspicious, also on the country’s economic development has made its own contribution to. At the same time, because of the danger inherent fireworks production, is also concern about its security problems. To effectively reduce fireworks production enterprise of accidents, safety evaluation will no doubt play a huge role. In this paper, analysis of the situation in fireworks manufacturers, now the practical assessment for a number of deficiencies exist, establish a realistic needs assessment system, and in practice a better evaluation of results obtained.1、In this paper firstly introduces the development course and the safety evaluation of fireworks industry, and further analyses the fireworks industry safety issues, explore the safety evaluation to promote the healthy development of the industry.2、Combined with practical safety assessment, for fireworks production enterprise risk factors of harmful comprehensively analyzed, and concluded that these dangerous and harmful factors on corporate security.3、On fireworks production enterprise evaluation process, the evaluation method is mainly used safety checklist, accident tree analysis, etc. And to identify and calculation of major hazard, In this paper, the full comparison of analytical methods based on the advantages and disadvantages, Seeks to proceed from their overall safety, based on people - machine - ring trajectory cross theory, combined with enterprise’s safety management system, by Fuzzy Mathematics and analysis, construction of the fuzzy hierarchy evaluation method, overall safety situation of enterprise and the probability of quantitative evaluation, scientific intuition, make more objective and fair evaluation result, to grasp the enterprise itself and evaluation of enterprise and improve the safety situation of space.4、In the actual evaluation process, for most of the accident was due to careless and defects of the management and facts,diagnosis of proposed safety management recommendations,improving safety management in evaluating the weight,to make the company pay more attention to the role of safety management.
【Key words】 Fireworks; Safety assessment; Fuzzy mathematics; Analytic hierarchy; Probability Forecast;