【作者】 吴冬玲；

【导师】 桂寿平；

【作者基本信息】 华南理工大学 ， 物流工程与管理， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 自20世纪80年代开始,全球产业结构呈现出由“工业型经济”向“服务型经济”转变的趋势,现代服务业在经济中的作用日益凸现,成为一些国家新的经济增长点。在我国,近几年来,中央和地方的各级政府工作报告与文件中,都开始将“现代服务业”的发展问题提上议事日程。广东省作为我国经济发达地区,拥有强大的工业基础,在新一轮的竞争中,将产业升级放在十分重要的位置,因此发展现代服务业面临着良好的机遇。物流业具有产业关联度高、带动效应强的特点,是引导生产、促进消费的先导产业,因此国内发达地区在发展现代服务业的过程中,提出重点发展物流业,推进现代服务业的发展;另一方面,有学者对发达国家的物流业进行研究,发现物流业对服务业的消耗远大于对制造业的消耗。可见,物流业将会愈加需要现代服务业的支持,而物流业又能推动支持其他现代服务业的发展,彼此存在着紧密的关联关系。在这种背景下,开展物流业与其他现代服务业的互动作用研究,从理论深度定量揭示广东物流业与其他现代服务业的关联度及关联路径,能够为广东立物流产业为主导产业之一发展现代服务业提供理论依据,为制定物流业的发展战略、促进物流业与现代服务业的协调发展提供比较科学的数据支持。目前现代服务业以定性研究为主,而且没有一个界定的标准,因此本文首先基于广东经济普查年鉴的数据,综合利用多种定量分析工具以及MATLAB软件,建立广东现代服务业的界定模型。在此基础上,利用产业关联模型以及由广东省统计局提供的、最新编制的《2007年广东投入产出表》,从纵向供需和横向协作两个维度定量分析物流业与其它现代服务业的关联度,识别物流业与现代服务业各行业之间的依赖程度,并为广东立物流产业为主导产业之一发展现代服务业提供理论依据。利用关联度分析的结果及图论模型,建立强关联条件下的由全行业形成的产业网络有向图;利用有向图的邻接矩阵和MATLAB软件,求解了有向图顶点之间的可达矩阵;通过可达矩阵,对于存在着产业路径的物流业与某一现代服务业行业,通过Java编程求解短路径,识别物流业与其他现代服务业发生强关联作用所依赖的产业路径,能够为政府部门制定促进物流业与其他现代服务业协调发展的策略提供比较科学的数据支持。最后,在以上理论研究的基础上,提出广东物流业与其他现代服务业融合发展的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1980, global industrial structure has been changing from‘industrial economy’to‘service-oriented economy’. Modern service industry has been playing a more and more important role in the economy and become some countries’new economic growth points. In recent years, development of‘modern service industry’has been put on the agenda in China. Guangdong has a strong industrial base and put the industrial upgrading in a very important position in the new round of competition, thus modern service industry is faced with a good development opportunity.As logistics industry has the characteristics of high correlation and strong driving effect, some developed regions and cities of China place logistics in the leading position while developing modern service industry. On the other hand, some scholars studied the logistics industry in developed countries and found that logistics industry is consuming much more service industry than the manufacturing industry. Therefore, there is a close association between logistics industry and modern service industry.In this situation, studying on the relevancy and the relevancy path between Guangdong logistics Industry and modern service industry quantificationally is quite important for their joint development.At present, there is no standard definition of the modern service industry. Therefore, this article firstly uses different quantitative analysis tools and MATLAB software to establish the distinguishing model of Guangdong modern service industry, based on the economic census yearbook of Guangdong.Secondly, the paper carries out the quantitative relevancy analysis between logistics industry and each modern service industry from vertical and horizontal dimensions, using the Input-Output model and the latest‘2007 Guangdong input-output table’provided by Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, with the purpose of clarifying the relevancy between logistics and each modern service and provide theoretical support for determining logistics industry as the leading service industry. Thirdly, this paper builds the industrial network digraph through the relevancy result and graph theory model, and calculates reachability matrix by using the adjacency matrix and MATLAB software, then finds out the short paths between logistics industry and each modern service industries, in order to identify how they influence each other and provide theoretical support for making joint development strategies.At last, the paper proposes some strategies based on the above theoretical study, in order to support the government making policies.更多还原