【作者】 刘宁；

【导师】 汪小勤；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 西方经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 国际油价自2007年特别是2008年以后急剧攀升,2008年7月11日曾一度达到每桶147美元的历史空前高价。高企的油价一度给世界各国,尤其是给发达国家和以中国和印度为代表的新兴市场经济国家带来巨大的通货膨胀压力。然而,自2008年8月以来,随着世界性金融危机的加剧,对石油需求的预期减少,原油价格的大幅度回落,从最高点的147美元一路下跌至33美元每桶。作为新兴市场经济国家,中国的经济日益与国际经济接轨,油价的剧烈波动对我国的经济运行造成巨大冲击。因此,研究石油价格波动的原因,分析影响和决定石油价格的主要因素,并且有针对性地从微观和宏观两个层面,为我国应对国际石油价格波动提出有效政策建议和方案尤为重要。鉴于此,本文从长短期的视角,围绕国际石油供求关系、美元汇率以及石油期货市场等三个方面,探讨国际石油价格波动的原因,分析和研究影响或决定国际石油价格的主要因素。本文回顾了三次石油危机的发生背景、原因和油价高企的特征,以及石油危机对经济产生的影响。在此基础上,重点阐述了本轮石油价格大幅度波动的状况和特点。接下来,论文从以下三方面讨论国际油价的影响或决定因素。首先,论文讨论了国际石油供需状况对国际石油价格的影响。指出短期內由于国际石油供需关系相对稳定,因此石油供需对石油价格的影响甚微。然而,以中国和印度为代表的新兴市场经济国家迅速崛起和快速发展,打破了相对稳定的国际石油供求关系,对油价产生明显拉升作用。随后,论文分析了美元汇率与国际石油价格变动之间的关系,指出美元汇率的波动直接决定即时的国际石油价格,而石油价格的波动又经由实体经济和贸易对美元汇率产生间接影响。最后,论文着重分析了石油期货市场及其投机对国际石油价格决定的影响。指出,自2005年以来,在石油价格的剧烈波动中,石油期货市场及其投机在近几年期间石油价格大幅度波动中间有着至关重要的影响和作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 From 2007, especially 2008, the price of the international oil price has being rising rapidly and had touched $147 per barrel on July 11th, 20008 which had set up a record in the history. High oil price resulted in an enormously negative consequence to the world economy generally on the inflation side. However, as the economic crisis deteriorated since August, 2008, the oil price has dropped dramatically to $33 per barrel, right back to the start point. With the continuous merger of China and the international market, the unpredictable international oil price is putting the China under the big pressure. Therefore, to study the reason of oil price turbulence and analyze the major factors affecting oil price and propose an useful solution thereafter is crucial for the moment. In terms of complication of oil price, this article, with both long term and short term observation, is focusing on the factors hereunder: Demand and supply, exchange rate of US dollar and speculation on futures market.First of all, this article discussed the demand and supply side of international oil price, and made a conclusion that in a relatively short term, the demand and supply has little if any impact on the international oil price. However, with the development of New-Coming Market Economies especially China and India, the old regime of oil demand and supply has broken down and pull the oil price up thereafter. Second, this article discussed about the relationship of US dollar and oil price and indicated that the relationship is on a two way basis. The US dollar exchange rate will decide the oil price instantly while the oil price will affect the dollar in a more complicate way in terms of real economy and international trade. At last, this article discussed about the major factor that impose a great impact on the international oil market---the Petroleum futures market.更多还原