对外投资与经济合作对地缘政治的影响

【作者】 张源；

【导师】 唐贤兴；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 外交学， 2010， 硕士

【副题名】以中国对中亚地区的投资为例

【摘要】 中国对外开放不仅塑造了中国快速而持续的经济成长,也因为中国国际地位的不断提升而对国际关系产生了重大影响。本文旨在研究中国的对外开放与区域性和全球性地缘政治结构变化之间的关联。这是一个宏大的研究主题,为了便于说明问题,本文选取中国对外开放的新形式(即对外投资)与地缘政治变化之间的关联为研究视角,以中国对中亚地区的投资及其政治影响作为具体的案例材料。上世纪90年代中期以来,中国对外开放的重点从吸引外来投资为主逐渐转移到扩大对外投资和推进国际合作上,即中国对外开放的“走出去”阶段。“走出去”战略是中国对外开放和经济高速发展的产物,其对国际关系产生的影响,既体现在它表明了中国对国际经济事务已具有一定的实质性影响力,也体现在它可能改变着世界地缘政治格局,并对中国的地缘政治环境产生某种影响。然而,中国扩大对外投资对于世界地缘政治和中国地缘政治环境的变化、从而对中国的外交产生怎样的影响,目前的学术研究还显得不足。本文通过研究中国对中亚地区的投资对地缘政治产生的影响,得出本文的一个基本观点,即：中国扩大对外投资会带来地缘政治格局的变化,而这一变化是否有利于地缘政治相对的稳定性,则取决于中国如何在扩大对外投资的过程中协调好与一些主要大国之间的利益关系。当然,在论证这个观点时,我们必须注意到其中的一些限定性因素。比如,中国扩大对外投资的一个重要考虑是形成有利的地缘政治环境,但是,如果没有在扩大对外投资与增进当地国的经济增长和社会发展之间实现有机的关联,那么,这一目标的实现便存在问题。另外,中亚国家在地缘政治结构上具有复杂性的特点,对中亚国家来说,发展与俄罗斯、中国和美国的关系依然是中亚国家外交的主要方向,中美俄在中亚的争夺也较之以往更加激烈。因此,中国在中亚地区投资的发展必然会引起大国关系的微妙变化,中国必须处理好对外投资的经济利益和政治利益之间的关系。本文的主体内容由四个章节所构成。在第一章中,为了分析中国对外投资与中亚地缘政治结构的变化之间的关联,作者建立了一个简单的分析框架。这一分析框架告诉我们,对外投资的发展所产生的或所包含的地缘政治意义是十分明显的。第二章分析了中亚地区地缘政治的敏感性和复杂性,并揭示了影响这种敏感性和复杂性的一些重要变量。在这里,作者认为,在中亚地区正在形成的大国新博弈,增加了地缘政治的这种敏感性和复杂性,对中国在中亚地区的投资行为的考察,不能离开对这一问题的认识。在接下来的两章中,作者首先对中国对外投资战略做了整体上的分析,这个分析为分析中国对中亚的投资提供了必要的背景；其次,作者重点分析了中国对中亚国家的投资所产生的地缘政治含义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The opening-up policy creates rapid and sustained economic growth in China, it also significantly influences the international relations thanks to China’s rising status in the world. This thesis aims to study the interrelation between China’s opening-up and the changes of the regional and global geopolitical structures. It is a great theme actually. The thesis selects the interrelationship between China’s outbound investment and the geopolitical changes as a perspective in order to explain this issue, and using China’s investment to Central Asia and its political influence as the specific case study. Since the mid 1990s, the focus of China’s opening up, to mainly attract foreign investment, has gradually shifted to expanding outbound investment and promoting international cooperation, that is, the "Going out" stage of China’s opening-up policy. "Going out" strategy is the achievement of China’s opening-up and rapid economic development. Its influence to the international relations not only reflects that China has already had certain substantial influence in global economic affairs, but also reflects it may change the world’s geopolitical structure, and have some impact on China’s geopolitical environment.However, the current academic research is still inadequate concerning the changes of the global geopolitics and China’s geopolitical environment due to China’s expansion of outbound investment. After studying the geopolitical impact of China’s investment in Central Asia, the thesis reaches a basic point, that is, China’s expansion of outbound investment will bring about changes in the geopolitical situation, but whether the changes benefit to the relative stability of the geopolitics or not depends on how China coordinates with the major interests among the great powers in the process of expanding outbound investment. Indeed, we should observe some of the restrictive factors when proving this point. On the one hand, an important consideration of China’s expansion of outbound investment is to form a favorable geopolitical environment. But if there is not a correlation between expanding outbound investment and enhancing the local country’s economic growth and social development, then there will be a problem to realize the goal. On the other hand, complexity of the geopolitical structure is a significant feature among the Central Asian countries. To develop the relationship with Russia, China and the US is still the main direction of Central Asian countries’ diplomacy. The competition among China, the US and Russia in Central Asia is more intensive than that in the past. Therefore, China’s investment in Central Asia will inevitably lead to some subtle changes in terms of the relations among the great powers. China should balance the relations between the economic interests and political interests of outbound investment.The main content of this thesis consists of four chapters. In the first chapter, the author establishes a fundamental framework to analyze the interrelation between China’s outbound investment and Central Asia’s geopolitical structure. This analyzing framework tells us the geopolitical significance arising out of or included in the development of outbound investment is quite clear. The second chapter analyzes the sensitivity and complexity of the geopolitics in Central Asia, and reveals some of the important variables which influence the sensitivity and complexity. Here the author believes that the emerging new game among great powers in Central Asia has increased the geopolitical sensitivity and complexity. The study of China’s investment activities in Central Asia should not leave the understanding of this issue. In the next two chapters, the author firstly makes the analysis of the whole China’s FDI strategy, which provides a necessary background for the analysis of China’s investment in Central Asia, then the author emphases on analyzing the geopolitical implications of China’s investment in Central Asian countries.更多还原