【作者】 苏丹；

【导师】 费良军；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2009， 硕士

【副题名】以陕西省引汉济渭调水工程受水区为例

【摘要】 本文在查阅大量国内外相关文献资料的基础上,采用理论研究与实例应用相结合的技术路线,以陕西省“引汉济渭工程”为例,主要研究了陕西省“引汉济渭”受水区水资源的优化配置和水资源的可持续利用评价问题,主要研究成果：(1)分别用定额法和BP神经网络方法对“引汉济渭工程”关中地区6个重要城市规划水平年进行了需水量预测,两种方法的预测结果基本一致。用定额法对“引汉济渭工程”受水区和关中地区的6个城市的规划水平年进行了需水量的预测。基于现状水平年和规划水平年的可供水量,对关中受水区和6个城市进行供需平衡分析,获得设计水平年的缺水量。(2)建立了“引汉济渭工程”受水区水资源优化配置2层谱系大系统分解协调数学模型,每一层分别是由经济目标、社会目标和环境目标组成,分别用遗传算法、粒子群算法和单纯形算法求解数学模型,对比和分析三种方法,得出遗传算法适用于本文的水资源优化配置模型。研究结果表明：在实施“引汉济渭”后,关中地区的供需矛盾得以缓解,可提高经济效益、社会效益和生态环境效益,对下一步促进水资源的可持续发展意义重大。(3)对水资源优化模型进行了价值系数的敏感性分析,分别用遗传算法和单纯形法求解获得价值系数变化后的优化配置数学模型的最优值和最优解,得出了价值系数与最优值和最优解之间的关系。(4)在确定评价指标体系原则的基础上,建立了城市水资源可持续利用评价指标体系,包括4个一级指标、12个二级指标和38个三级指标。运用博弈论的方法将主观权重法(层次分析法)和客观权重法(熵值法)进行集化、融合,从而得到一组均衡的综合权重。(5)应用模糊综合评判法和集对分析法对陕西省“引汉济渭”受水区的西安市及其区县的水资源可持续利用能力进行了综合评估,两种方法得到的结论基本相同,评估结果现状水平年西安市为一般偏弱,2010年、2020年和2030年西安市水资源可持续利用能力分别为一般偏弱、一般偏弱和一般偏强,说明随着社会经济的发展,科技的进步,节水意识的增强以及水利工程的建设和改造,西安市水资源可持续利用能力状态逐渐增强。更多还原

【Abstract】 The optimized allocation and sustainable development and utilization of water resources are studied in this dissertation based on referring large number of information in this direction home and abroad, utilizing the technical route of linking theory with instance analysis, taking the Han Jiang-to-Wei He River Water Transfer Project as example. The main achieves are following.(1)Actual water demanded of the water imported areas in the Han Jiang-to-Wei He River Water Transfer Project of Shan Xi is predicted using norm method. Actual water demanded of spared six cities of the Han Jiang-to-Wei He Project Guan Zhong region are predicted using norm method and BP neural networks. The results of both of the two methods are consistent. Planned water demanded of the water imported areas and spared six cities of the Han Jiang-to-Wei He Project are predicted using norm method. And then based on offered water the balance of the water imported areas and spared six cities are analyzed and water deficiency are calculated.(2)A large system of two layers decomposition coordination model of optimal operation on water resources in the Han Jiang-to-Wei He Project is established. Every layer is composed of economic, social and ecological goals. Mathematical model is resolved using genetic algorithm, BP neural networks and simplex algorithm.GA is applicated to optimized allocation of water resource model after contrasted and analyzed the three methods. The study indicates that contradiction of the balance is relieved. Sustainable development of water resources is accelerated through enhancing economic, social and ecological benefit. (3)Value coefficient susceptibility of mathematical model is analyzed in consideration of value coefficient accuracy. Optimal values and optimal solution of mathematical model are resolved using genetic algorithm and simplex algorithm after the value coefficient changed. The relationship between value coefficient and optimal values and optimal solution is obtained.(4)City water resources sustainable development and utilization indicator system is established including four one-level indexes, twelve two-level indexes and thirty-eight three-level indexes based on indicator system determination principles. Two sets weight are harmonized and conjugated by the game theory based on studying subjective weight method (AHP) and objective weight method (entropy value)to obtain a set of comprehensive weight.(5) Water resources sustainable development and utilization of the Han Jiang-to-Wei He Project of Xi’an is evaluated using fuzzy comprehensive study and set pair analysis. The results of both of the two methods are consistent. The evaluation result of Xi’an actual level is less and planned level are less, less and better. It shows that Xi’an water resources sustainable development and utilization get better with development of society and economy, progress of science, enhancing water-saving consciousness, construction and improvement of hydraulic project. But Xi’an water resources sustainable development and utilization is affected after 2020 due to hysteresis effect of the Han Jiang-to-Wei He Project.更多还原