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投资理财周期特征的分析
【作者】 齐子翔；
【导师】 李新；
【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 硕士
【摘要】 撰写本文的目的是研究经济周期与投资者的理财投资选择是否存在一一对应的规律。本文通过对经济周期的阐述,以及对资本市场,商品市场变化的分析,从经济机制,供求关系,资金泡沫三个方面论证了如下结论：整个国民经济有周期,同理,理财也有周期。假设国民经济周期划分为四个不同的阶段——衰退、复苏、过热和滞胀。每个阶段都对应着表现超过大市的某一特定投资理财产品：债券、股票、大宗商品和黄金。经济衰退时对应的主流投资产品是债券。经济复苏时对应的主流投资产品是股票。经济过热时对应的主流投资产品是大宗商品。经济出现滞涨时对应的主流投资产品是黄金。这是投资理财的周期,与经济的周期是一一对应的,只有把握经济周期的规律,在合适的经济阶段做适当的投资理财选择才能使投资者得到较好的投资回报。
【Abstract】 The aim for this paper is to study if there is a corresponding relationship between the economic cycle and the investors’financial investment options. After the economic cycle is explained and the changes of the capital market and the goods market are analyzed, the following conclusions are made in terms of the economic system, supply-demand relationship and the financial bubbles.The whole economy has a cycle, and so does the investment. Suppose the whole economy is divided into four stages—recession, recovery, overheat and stagflation, and every stage corresponds to a specific investment target whose performance is much better than the market. The four targets are bonds, equities, commodities, and gold. The corresponding ideal investment target is bonds in the period of economic recession; likewise, equities in the period of recovery, commodities in the period of overheat and gold in the period of stagflation. This is the cycle of the financial investment, which corresponds to the economic cycle. Only when the rule of the economic cycle is mastered and certain financial investment options are pursued in certain economic stages can the profits of the investors be maximized.