【作者】 刘莉；

【导师】 敖慧；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 工商管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 金融业在现代经济中扮演着核心角色,银行业是现代金融业的核心:作为一国综合国力的重要组成部分,银行业在国民经济中占有相当重要的地位。而上市银行作为银行业的中坚力量,正在吸引着越来越多的关注。尤其是在金融危机的大环境下,如何从不同角度衡量上市银行的投资价值,如何控制市场风险,如何对上市银行投资价值进行客观及时的反映和评估,是机构投资者和普通投资者所共同面临和最关注的核心问题之一。2006年年底,我国金融业按照WTO的约定全面对外开放,众多外资银行入关我国,在此背景下,中国银行业面临的国际化竞争将进一步加剧。与此同时,国内银行业兴起了一股上市潮:2007年的中国股市牛气冲天,上证综合指数一度突破6000点大关;2008年由次贷危机演变而来的金融危机席卷全球,银行业受到最直接的影响。与大多数国外大型银行受金融海啸冲击深陷亏损泥潭相比,我国以工商银行、建设银行为首的银行却取得良好业绩。可以说,三年的时间里,中国银行业随着宏观经济变化、国家政策驱动的影响经历了一个跌宕起伏的过程。随着越来越多的商业银行加入上市的行列,银行股赢得了越来越多投资者的关注。本文首先从宏观环境、行业环境、未来获利空间三个方面对银行业的投资环境进行分析。在宏观环境分析一块,运用PEST分析模型从政治、经济、社会、技术四个角度对银行业所处的宏观环境进行分析。在行业环境一块,主要利用了波特五力竞争模型进行分析。随后建立我国上市商业银行投资价值的综合评价指标体系,站在投资者的角度从盈利能力、风险管理能力、发展能力、营运能力、整体规模5个一级指标,共计24个二级指标对我国上市商业银行的投资价值进行研究,运用层次分析法赋权重,利用线性加权和函数法建模,并对各上市商业银行的投资价值进行综合分析排名。最后截取各上市商业银行2009年1至6月的股价变动数据,计算月均增长率,验证各上市商业银行投资价值综合评价指标体系和评价模型的有效性和准确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The financial services industry plays a central role in the modern economy, the banking industry is the core of modern financial services industry; As an important component of the country’s comprehensive national strength, the banking industry plays a rather important position of in the national economy. The listed banks as the backbone of the banking industry, is attracting more and more attention. Especially in the current environment of financial crisis, how to measure the investment value of listed banks from the different angles, How to control market risk, How to conduct an objective and timely reflection and assessment for the value of listed investment, is one of the key issues of concern to institutional investors and ordinary investors.At the end of 2006, China’s financial markets are fully opened according to WTO, numerous foreign banks entered our country, and under this background the international competitiveness of China’s banking industry will be further intensified. At the same time, more and more domestic banks started initial public offering; Chinese stock market soars to the heaven in 2007, its key share index crossed the 6000- point mark for the first time. Financial crisis swept around the world in 2008, which developed from Subprime Mortgage Crisis. The banking industry was directly affected. Compared with foreign banks had made gigantic losses in the global financial tsunami, domestic banks performed very well, especially Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank. It can be said that in the past three years, China’s banking industry has undergone many ups and downs along with the macro economy change and government policy-driven influence. with more and more commercial banks’ issued shares are approved for trading on a stock exchange, the bank stocks has won more and more investors’ attention in China securities market.This thesis first carried on feasibility analysis in investing in bank share from macro environment, industry environment, and future profit space three aspects. In the macro environment analysis, Utilized the PEST Model from politics, economy, society, and technical four angles carried on the analysis. In the industry environment analysis, Utilized Michael Porters Five Forces Model to carry on the analysis. Then construct assessment indicator system and comprehensive assessment function. From a investor’s point of view, Conducted research including five primary indexes : profitability, risk-manage ability, develop capabilities, operation capability, and market scale .which are comprised of 24 secondary indexes. Used AHP to calculate out the weight modulus of every index. And made comprehensive evaluation and arranged in an order to the present 11 listed commercial banks, then carried on concrete comparative analysis. At last compared stock price tendency of the 11 listed commercial banks in 2009 with the synthetic order that was arranged in paper to prove the accuracy of comprehensive assessment function, and verify the practicability and feasibility of the model in actual operation.更多还原