【作者】 梁振；

【导师】 钟昌标；

【作者基本信息】 宁波大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2011， 硕士

【副题名】基于中国1978～2009年的经验数据

【摘要】 改革开放以来,在出口导向政策的指导下,中国创造了世界近现代史上对外贸易的奇迹。1978年到2009年的30余年间,中国出口额扩大了146倍,年平均增长率在18%以上。出口取得的成就值得欣喜,但是出口存在的问题也不容忽视:出口年增长率可以高达40%,但也可以低到-18.4%。在当前国内经济增长方式转型尚未实现、国内消费疲软、国外需求仍十分重要的情况下,如何促进贸易稳定增长,成为一个亟待解决的问题。汇率和出口退税政策被认为是调节出口的重要政策手段。2008年金融危机以来,国内出口严重受挫。为应对出口下降,国内频繁调整出口退税政策,2008年8月1日起,我国连续7次上调相关产品的出口退税率。在此期间,人民币保持币值的稳定。进入2010年,国内出口开始回升并出现恢复性增长。出口的复苏带来人民币升值的压力,中国人民银行与6月19日宣布进一步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革,增强人民币汇率弹性;财政部、国税总局宣布于7月15日调低部分产品的出口退税率。两种政策究竟何者对调整出口更为有效;在调整出口的同时两者之间是否存在协调机制;影响出口的机制是否存在地区差异?为分析以上问题,本文从理论分析、经验分析、实证分析和对比分析四个角度展开论述。本文梳理了出口退税、汇率与国际贸易相关的理论以及出口退税、汇率政策的在国内的历史演变和经验,对比国内外出口退税制度并提出借鉴意义。从两个角度给出文章的实证研究:一是以全国时间序列数据建立的SVAR模型,二是以地区面板数据构建了固定影响变系数模型。实证结果表明:出口退税政策对出口调整的效力大于汇率政策,体现在退税政策的时滞效应短、对地区出口影响显著、对出口影响弹性系数较大;出口退税、汇率政策在应对出口、国际社会压力时存在一定的协调机制。根据结论,本文认为:应对出口波动、缓解货币升值压力、调整出口商品结构等情况,应积极使用出口退税政策,审慎使用汇率政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China’s reform and opening up, China has created a miracle in international trade, under the export-oriented policy guidance. 1978 to 2009, China expanded its exports to 146 times and the average annual growth rate of export is more than 18%. We should appreciate the achievements of exports, but the problems can not be ignored: the export growth rate can up to 40%, but can also be as low as -18.4%. At this moment, domestic economic growth mode transformation has not yet been achieved, domestic consumption is still weak, foreign demand is still very important, hense, how to keep trade stable, has become a serious problem.Exchange rate and export tax rebate policy are considered as important policy instrument for export. Since the financial crisis of 2008, domestic exports suffered a serious setback. In response to the decline in exports, domestic goverment adjust export tax rebate policy frequently. Since August 1st, 2008, the export tax rebate rate had increasd 7 times. While keep the RMB stable during this period. 2010, domestic export began to rise and have a restorative growth. The recovery of exports bring pressure to RMB appreciation, then the People’s Bank of China announced on June 19 that further promote would be done on RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility; at the same time, the Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation announced on July 15 to tune lower export tax rebate rate of some products. Which is more effective on adjustment of export; if a coordination mechanism exist while in adjustment of export between the two policies; is there a regional difference?To solve the above problems, this paper gives theoretical analysis、empirical analysis、empirical analysis and comparative analysis. The paper reviews international trade theories about tax rebate rate and exchange rate, summarize the history and experiences of export tax rebates, the exchange rate policy, compared to the export tax rebate system at home and abroad and then made reference. The article give empirical analysis in two perspectives: the first is about national time series data and set a SVAR model, the second is about regional panel data and construct a fixed effect and variable coefficient regression model. The empirical results show that: export tax rebate policy is important than exchange rate policy on the adjustment of export. It is reflected in the short time lag effect, significant effect on the region’s exports, large elasticity on affecting export; there is a certain coordination mechanism between export tax rebates and exchange rate policy during adjusting export and in response to pressure of international community. According to the conclusion, the paper gets that: in response to export instability, relieve the currency appreciation pressure, adjust the structure of export commodities, etc., we should actively use the export tax rebate policy, prudent use exchange rate policy.更多还原