【作者】 张亮；

【导师】 华俊；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 2008上半年,基础原材料,包括能源和农业产品价格大幅上涨,全球范围通胀压力骤增,到了下半年,不但美国经济处于低谷,欧洲和亚洲等发达和发展中国家的经济也被拖累,全球经济都开始进入衰退期。全球各国都开始把自己的目光聚焦到了各种资源分配的再定位上,这中间最重要的两个部分便是土地资源和能源,而大豆是两者之间联系的纽带之一：因为大豆生产需要大量的优质土地资源,同时,大豆又是新兴的生物能源中生物柴油的原料。我国作为世界大豆进口量最多的国家,在食用油供给、饲料和畜牧业发展等方面都有着巨大的需求量,因此,研究我国的大豆进口贸易,有着非常深远的意义和影响。我国曾经是全球最大的大豆出口国,但是1996年后,由于大量进口转基因大豆的冲击,我国逐渐转变为今天全球最大的大豆及其加工产品的进口国。本文研究的主要目的是,在现有的国际竞争力理论和国际贸易理论的基础上,分析我国大豆由出口国转为进口国,且进口量不断增加的原因,并指出我国大豆遭受被垄断后对其他农产品带来的不利影响,最后提出有针对性和切合实际情况的建议,旨在缓解我国大豆逆差严重的状况,并且通过对大豆进口贸易的研究得出一些值得借鉴的经验和教训,提醒我们以后在日益开放的玉米、棉花等其他农作物市场的管理上不要犯相类似的错误。本文首先介绍了与本文相关的理论研究文献,之后第二章中介绍了世界大豆市场的情况,包括美国阿根廷巴西等几个大豆出口国,并且重点介绍了美国大豆的生产及贸易情况,第三章,介绍了我国国内的大豆产业情况,分析了我国大豆国际竞争力,需求状况,抵抗灾害能力,进口贸易以及补贴政策等方面,第四章通过实证分析讨论了影响我国大豆进口贸易的各要素,包括我国国内大豆产量,国内大豆收购价格,国际大豆价格,人民币汇率,人均消费量,豆粕和豆油的需求等,并逐步回归后最终找出对大豆进口贸易起着最重要作用的因素,最后一章则分析了大量进口大豆会对我国大豆产业带来怎样的影响,以及对玉米棉花等其他农作物市场带来的启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the first half year of 2008, price for basic raw materials rose sharply, including energy and agricultural product, which made a great pressure in global inflation. And meanwhile, the soybean price kept on soaring, the U.S. soybean index even hitting a new high record in March,2008,1549 cents/bushel, with a increase 26.6%. China used to be the world’s largest soybean exporter, but after 1996, with the large impact of genetically modified soybean imports, China became to the world’s largest soybean importer; so we wondered which exact factor had led to the great changes on china’s import and export soybean market and we also want to find out whether the large number of imported genetically modified soybeans would have a great influence and impact on china’s soybean market.I will demonstrate it in this article, draw a conclusion and make some solutions. This paper highlighted the theoretical research related to this article, including resource endowments, comparative advantage theory, Porter’s competitive theory, etc., and then introduced some domestic and foreign scholars; the third chapter of this paper talked about the world soybean market, including several major soybean exporter, including USA, Argentina and Brazil, etc, and then focused on U.S. soybean production and trade situation.On the fourth chapter of this article, it described the situation of the country’s domestic soybean industry, and also mentioned analysis of China’s soybean international competitiveness, demand conditions, resist disasters, import trade and subsidy policy, etc.; on the fifth chapter the paper, we discussed several different elements which had impact on China’s soybean import trade, including China’s domestic soybean production, the domestic soybean price, international soybean prices, the RMB exchange rate, per capita consumption, the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil, etc., and then got the most significant factors on soybean imports obtained by regression; the final chapter of this paper is analyzed what effect will be brought to China’s soybean industry, and what we can do to avoid more losses.更多还原