【作者】 杨峰；

【导师】 王美春；

【作者基本信息】 山东师范大学 ， 体育教育训练学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 本论文以历届全运会田径男女各项比赛前三名平均成绩、前三名水平的平均值和第12届全运会的预测成绩为研究对象。采用文献资料法、对比分析法、数理统计法和灰色预测法对全运会田径成绩的发展态势进行分析和预测研究。通过数据整理和统计,论文可以将全运会田径男女各项比赛前三名平均成绩、前三名水平的平均值的发展态势由两表三图表现出来,它们分别是发展系数对照表、递进系数统计表、环比动态图、定基比动态图和水平动态图,并对它们进行相应的分析。全运会各阶段田径项目成绩的发展系数可以反映其各阶段总体发展趋势;递进系数的平均值反映项目发展状况;环比动态图反映成绩波动;从定基比动态图可了解成绩发展线路,即在某届是上升还是下降;从水平动态图可知各项目在每届的水平。通过采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,论文将对第12届全运会田径成绩进行预测。两表三图,将各阶段全运会田径各项目成绩的发展趋势、发展状况以及动态变化过程清楚且系统的展现出来,有利于对全运会田径运动发展有全局性了解和整体性把握。论文中采用达标类体育竞赛百分制记分法计算出各项目水平,通过这种方法既可以得出某项体育竞赛项目在世界范围内的运动水平,也可以对不同项目的运动水平有共同的衡量尺度。对第12届全运会田径成绩进行预测,有利于国家或各代表团竞技体育主攻方向的确立,也有利于教练员和运动员合理安排训练计划。第十二届全运会预测研究显示:(1)男子田径主要项目预测成绩上升的有400m栏、800m、10000m、3000m障碍、20km竞走、50km竞走、跳远、三级跳远、撑杆跳高、铅球、链球、十项全能。(2)男子田径主要项目预测成绩下降的有100m、200m、400m、110m栏、1500m、5000m、马拉松、跳高、铁饼、标枪。(3)女子田径主要项目预测成绩上升的10000m、跳高、跳远、撑杆跳高、铅球、铁饼、链球。(4)女子田径主要项目预测成绩下降的有100m、200m、400m、100m栏、400m栏、800m、1500m、5000m、20km竞走、马拉松、三级跳远、标枪、七项全能。需要指出的是,预测成绩仅仅反映了运动成绩的达到可能值,也仅仅只能作为制定训练计划或政府决策参考。通过对两表三图的分析和研究发现:(1)1-4届全运会田径速度类短跑项目和跨栏项目除男女400m外成绩总体呈下降趋势,而耐力类中长距离项目和超长距离项目除男子1500m外都是上升的,田赛项目和全能项目成绩也是有不同程度提高的。5-7届除男子1500m和男子撑杆跳高外,全运会田径项目成绩普遍得到较大提高。8-11届全运会男女径赛项目除110m栏、男子800m、男子10000m、男子20km竞走和50km竞走成绩有所上升,其余都是下降的;田赛男子项目成绩除跳高和铁饼外都是上升的,而田赛女子项目除撑杆跳高外则都是下降的;全能类项目中十项全能成绩上升,七项全能下降;需要特别指出的是,在8-11届全运会女子田径项目除撑杆跳高外成绩都是下降的,成绩上升的大部分是男子项目。(2)110m栏、男子10000m和男子20km竞走在5-7届和8-11届成绩总体是上升的。男子800m、男子跳远、男子三级跳远、男子铅球和标枪三个阶段都是上升的。田赛除了男子撑杆跳高在5-7届外前两个阶段都是上升的。以上项目成绩体现出良好的发展态势。男子1500m在三个阶段都呈下降趋势,发展态势较差。(3)全运会三个阶段中,1-4届各项目成绩波动较大。(4)田赛项目成绩发展状况普遍好于径赛项目;在速度类和投掷类项目中除链球外,女子项目成绩发展状况好于男子;投掷项目稳定性差于其他项目;在短跑类项目、耐力类中长距离项目和力量类投掷项目(除链球外)中,女子项目成绩发展稳定性差于男子。(5)5-7届田径项目成绩有很大提高;男子项目中100m、110m栏、400m、标枪、铁饼、链球,女子项目100m、800m、1500m,在8-11届是连续下降的,需要引起有关部门的重视;统计田径各项目定基比绝对值的最大值可知,男子22个项目中有21个、女子20个项目中有13个是在8-11届出现的,说明全运会田径项目经历5-7届的全面发展,进入全盛时期。(6)女子中长距离项目、男女超长距离项目和男子110m栏水平相对较高,其最高水平都在96以上;男女投掷类项目水平相对较低,其最高水平除女子链球(91.84)外都在88以下。更多还原

【Abstract】 To the average of the top three scores , the average of the top three levels and the forecast values of the 12th National Games as research subjects, Using literature data, comparative analysis, mathematical statistics and gray prediction method analysis the development trend and forecast on Track and Field Results in National Games. Through data processing and statistics, two tables and three maps could show the development trend of the average of the top three scores and the average of the top three levels. They are the development coefficient table, progressive coefficient table, the chain dynamic map, the fixed base dynamic map and level dynamic map, then analysis them Correspondingly. Through the use of Grey GM (1, 1) model, the paper will predict the 12th National Games athletics results.two papers and threes maps will show up the achievements of each stage of Track and Field Development and the dynamic process of development clearly, conducive to understanding the development of the National Track and Field. Standard sports competition scoring percentile method are calculated for the level of each item. This method not only can be drawn the level of each item in the world, different projects can also have common measure. The forecast of Games track and field results in the 12th National is conducive to establish the main direction of Sports and arrange training programs for coaches and athletes.Prediction of the Twelfth National Games Show: (1) Men’s Track and Field results have increased. Such as 400m Field, 800m,10000m, 3000m Barrier, 20km Race Walking, 50km Race Walking, Long Jump, Triple Jump, Pole Vault, Shot Put, Hammer Throw, Decathlon.(2) Men’s Track and Field results have declined. Such as 100m,200m,400m, 110m Field, 1500m,5000m, Marathon, High jump, Discus, Javelin.(3) Women’s Track and Field results have increased. Such as 10000m, High jump, Long jump, Pole Vault, Shot Put, Discus, Hammer Throw.(4) Women’s Track and Field results have declined. Such as 100m,200m,400m, 100m field,400m field, 800m,1500m,5000m, 20km Race Walking, Marathon, Triple Jump, Javelin, Heptathlon. Should be noted that predicted results only reflect the Possible values of sports performance.The analysis and research of the two tables and three maps find that :(1) During 1-4 sessions of Track and Field sprint and hurdles but 400m hurdles overall downward trend, While the ultra-long haul long-distance projects but 1500mare rising, Field events and the all round performance are enhanced to varying degrees. During 5-7 sessions, the track and field results but Men’s 1500m and men’s pole vault have greatly improved in general. During 8-11 sessions track events In addition to 110m field , Men’s 800m, Men’s 10000m, Men’s 20km and 50km race walking have increased, the rest has declined; Men’s field events but high jump and discus the project results are rising, while the women’s field events but pole vault are falling; Decathlon up in All-around categories of projects, Heptathlon down; Particular note is that: During 8-11 sessions Women’s track and field results in addition to pole vault are dropped, the results are the rise in most of the Men’s.(2) During 5-7 sessions and 8-11 sessions, 110m field, men’s 10000m and men’s 20km Race Walking is the increase in the overall results. Men’s 800m, men’s long jump, men’s triple jump, men’s shot put and men’s javelin are rising in three stages. Field events but men’s pole vault rise in the first two stages. The above results reflect the project a good development momentum. man’s 1500m in three stages downward in the development of poor posture. (3) in three phases, 1-4 sessions results volatile.(4) Development of field events is in general better; In the speed class and throwing class projects, development of women’s achievements is better than men’s; the stability of Throwing is worse; In the sprint class project, in the long-distance projects and throwing events, the stability of Achievements the women’s events is worse.(5)In 5-7 sessions track and field results have greatly improved; Men’s events in the 100m, 110m field, 400m, javelin, discus, hammer throw, and women’s events in 100m, 800m, 1500m, are in the fall in 8-11 sessions. Authorities need to attract the attention; 5-7 sessions Track and Field project through the full development, 8-11 sessions in their prime time. (6) The level of women’s long-distance projects, ultra long-range project, men’s 110m field is relatively high, their highest level are in more than 96. The level of Throwing but is relatively low, their highest level are in less than 88.更多还原