【作者】 王萌；

【导师】 许百华；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 应用心理学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 在日常生活与工作中,人们往往需要对各种选项进行决策,对在不同时间兑现的收益或损失进行决策,就是跨期选择(Intertemporal choice).对存在一定风险的选项进行权衡即为风险决策(Risk decision)。这两种决策类型在人们的日常决策中占据重要地位,涉及人们生活的方方面面,如储蓄,投资,成瘾行为等等。根据现有的研究,学者们发现,跨期选择和风险决策在收益情境下有结构相似的贴现计算模型,在收益时都表现相同的风险厌恶,而在损失时又有相似的追求风险的偏好等等,以上的研究尤其是这两种决策拥有相同的计算方程的事实激起了学者深入研究两者关系的兴趣,并有研究者据此提出这两种决策是否拥有相同的心理过程,但是目前的研究结果表明尽管两者有相同的模型,但却表现出相反的量值效应,因此跨期选择和风险决策依然是独立的两种决策类型。也有学者推测相同的模型形式是否意味这两种决策由相同的心理特质影响,但是现有结论表明人格内外倾向不同的个体在两种决策中贴现程度并不相关,因此相同心理特质的结论依然未得到验证。目前这些研究都是建立在收益情境下,而且所涉及的心理特质研究较少,因此本研究首先将在损失情境下对两者的计算模型和量值效应,符号效应进行比较,然后探讨风险偏好与这两种决策的关系,希望从心理过程和心理特质两个角度对跨期选择和风险决策的关系有进一步的了解。本研究采用实验室模拟实验的方法,共分为两部分,首先让被试在网上完成风险偏好问卷,然后选择其中回答符合逻辑的个体进一步在实验室完成模拟的风险决策和跨期选择任务,共获得32份有效数据,经过分析得出如下结论(1)损失情境下,跨期选择和风险决策的依然具有相同的贴现计算方程-准双曲线方程。(2)损失情境下,跨期选择和风险决策拥有相同的量值效应。(3)跨期选择和风险决策表现相同的符号效应。(4)损失情境下,跨期选择和风险决策同样受风险偏好的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 In daily life and work, people always need to evaluate a variety of options for decision-making. In these decisions, outcomes occur at present or future, which are called intertemporal choice. Choices among risky prospects are risky decision making. The two types of decision-making play important roles in the society, involving all aspects of people’s lives, such as savings, investment, addictive behaviors, etc.According to the previous study, scholars found that intertemporal choice and risk decision-making share similar form of hyperbolic-like discounting function, showing same risk aversion in gains and risking seeking in losses. The above researches, especially the fact that the two kinds of choices share similar discounting form inspire in-depth study of the relationship between intertemporal choice and risk decision-making. Some scholars accordingly proposed that the two decisions may have same psychological process, but then their study show that although the same model, the two types of choices have different magnitude effects, so they still are independent decision-making types. Others speculated that the same forms might reflect the same underlying psychological traitsBut the current findings show that several temperamental traits (sensation seeking, extraversion-introversion and impulsivity) have different relation with the two kinds of choices, so the recent findings are inconsistent with a single-traits account. But nearly all the former researches are only involve gain situation, and the psychological traits are not closely connected with these two choices. So the present study will not only make a further research on the relationship between intertemporal choice and risky decision making in loss but also the role of explore risk preference in the two types of choices.The present research, employing the simulated experiment method, first let participants finishes the online risk preference scale, then invite those whose responses consistent with the scale’s logic take part in the hypothetical decision making tasks. There are 32 valid data collected at last. Gets the following results:(1) Intertemporal choice and risky-decision making still have same discounting form-hyperbola-like function in loss condition.(2) Intertemporal choice and risky-decision making share same magnitude effect(3) Intertemporal choice and risky-decision making showing same sign effect(4) The psychological trait of risk preference has the same relationship with the two types of decision making.更多还原