【作者】 谢奕玲；

【导师】 彭兆祺；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 劳动经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,北京市经济取得了长足的发展,综合实力及人民的整体生活水平都有了大幅度提高。但与此同时,也面临着产业结构调整升级和促进劳动者充分就业的双重任务。因此,探讨如何在产业结构调整升级的同时促进就业,达到北京市产业结构和就业结构的协同发展,具有重要的现实意义。本文将北京市就业问题置于产业结构调整的背景下,具体研究四个方面的问题：第一,描述北京市产业结构和就业结构的现状,旨在探讨北京市产业结构和就业结构的演变过程及其存在的主要问题；第二,分析三次产业的就业吸纳能力和第三产业内部各行业的就业效应,为就业增长角度的产业结构优化提供数据支持；第三,探讨影响北京市产业结构调整中就业效应的因素,为政策措施的制定提供依据；第四,产业结构调整中促进就业增长的政策建议,力求实现产业结构升级和劳动者充分就业。本文选取1978～2008年北京市统计局公布的数据,详细描述了产业结构和就业结构的演变过程及相互关系,从中发现：北京市产业结构和就业结构的变迁过程基本满足配第一克拉克的研究成果。产业结构不断优化,但同时就业结构仍存在一定的滞后性。首先,第一产业内部存在部分剩余劳动力,其次,第二、第三产业都存在进一步优化结构,扩大就业的可能。此外必须适度调整产业内部结构,进一步发挥其对就业的拉动作用。通过构建经济计量模型表明,第一产业的就业吸纳能力已经非常有限,呈现出排斥劳动力的特点,第二产业1992年之后就业弹性为负数,其劳动力明显流向了第三产业,第三产业成为北京市吸纳剩余劳动力、解决就业的主要途径。同时,第三产业内部不同行业具有不同的就业吸纳能力。本文主要从劳动力供给和劳动力需求两个方面探讨了影响北京市产业结构调整中影响就业效应的因素。劳动力供给方面,选取了劳动力数量和劳动力质量两个指标；劳动力需求方面,重点分析了资本和技术的替代作用以及收入水平对劳动力需求的影响。本文最后从产业结构优化和促进就业增长的配套措施两个方面提出产业结构调整中促进就业增长的政策建议。产业结构优化方面,北京市应致力于发展都市型现代农业、新型工业化和现代服务业。促进就业增长的配套措施方面,本文提出应加快提高劳动者素质,积极发展中小企业以及加强建设就业服务体系等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up, Beijing has made considerable progress in economic development. Comprehensive strength and overall living standards have been greatly improved as well. However, at the same time, Beijing is facing the dual-task for both industry structure adjustment and full employment. Therefore, it has important practical significance to find out the way to collaborative development of industry structure and employment structure.Under the background of industry structure adjustment, this paper focuses on four parts. The first part is the status quo description of industry structure and employment structure, in order to find out change progress and main problems. The second part is the employment absorptive capability analysis of three industries and the employment effect of different sectors in tertiary industry, providing data support for industry structure optimization from the view of employment growth. The third part is the factors influencing employment effect during the adjustment of industry structure, which provides the basis for making policies. The fourth part is the policies and suggestions regarding employment growth, so as to realize the industry optimization and full employment.This paper describes the change progress of industry structure and employment structure and the relationship between them on the basis of the data from 1978 to 2008 announced by Beijing Statistical Bureau, which finds out that the evolution of industry structure and employment structure meets W. Petty and C. Clark Law. The employment structure falls behind the industry structure which optimizes gradually. First, there are surplus labors in primary industry. Second, secondary industry and tertiary industry need further optimization in order to promote employment. Besides, the industry internal structures should be appropriately adjusted.By constructing econometric models, this paper comes to below conclusions. The primary industry that excludes labor force has very limited absorptive capacity. The employment elasticity of secondary industry is negative after 1992, whose labor force flows to tertiary industry obviously. Tertiary industry becomes Beijing’s main channel to absorb surplus labor and promote employment. Meanwhile, different sectors in tertiary industry have different absorptive abilities.This paper discusses the factors influencing employment effect from the aspects of labor supply and labor demand. On the aspect of labor supply, this paper selects labor quantity and labor quality. On the aspect of labor demand, this paper focuses on the substitution effects of capital and technology and the income effects.Finally, this paper put forwards the policies and suggestions, which could be categorized into two parts, the industry structure optimization and supplementary measures for employment promotion. From the view of industry structure optimization, Beijing should strive to develop urban modern agriculture, new industrialization and modern service industry. Furthermore, Beijing should improve the quality of workers, develop medium and small enterprises, and strengthen employment service system.更多还原