【作者】 张诚；

【导师】 刘庆林；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 硕士

【副题名】基于中国和印度的数据

【摘要】 近年来,在信息和通信技术的推动下,服务业全球化趋势日益加快,成为推动经济一体化的重要力量。在服务业国际转移的浪潮中,服务外包产业成为各国参与服务业国际分工协作的重要方式。“做你做得最好的,把其余外包出去!”服务外包产业实质上是运用分工合作这一经济学的古老原理,更为广泛深刻的改组服务业现有生产方式。在过去三十年时间里,依靠劳动力成本和市场规模等优势,中国大量承接制造业国际转移,被誉为“世界工厂”。然而,随着劳动力成本的不断提升、自然资源的日渐短缺以及生态环境的逐步恶化,转变经济增长方式,进而提升中国在全球生产链中的位置,成为亟待解决的一个重要课题。以承接服务外包为契机,全面推进服务业国际化,成为我国未来经济发展的重要推动力量。与此同时,同为发展中国家的印度,在经济发展过程中选择了一条独特的道路,以服务业现代化优先于工业现代化的模式推进经济的全面发展。在服务业国际转移的过程中,印度以“千年虫”问题为契机,充分依托其人才资源及语言优势,迅速发展成为欧美国家服务外包的主要承接国。通过服务外包产业的发展,印度正逐步成为“世界办公室”。在承接服务外包的过程中,良好的经济环境必然会促进服务外包产业的发展。通过科学方法对承接国服务外包经济环境的考察,一方面能够解释印度为何能在服务业国际转移的浪潮中脱颖而出,成为全球最重要的服务外包承接国；另一方面能够揭示目前中国承接服务外包的经济环境,是否有助于服务外包产业的发展。本文的基本分析框架为：在回顾了相关理论和文献后,首先对服务外包承接国的经济环境进行理论分析,在已有研究成果的基础上,从宏观、行业和微观等三个层面总结分析得到影响承接服务外包的八个因素。然后,运用计量方法将相关因素与中国和印度服务外包承接规模之间进行显著性检验,剔除不存在显著相关关系的变量。接着,利用主成分分析方法对通过显著性检验的影响因素提取主成分,并对中国和印度近十年来承接服务业外包经济环境加以测度,实现对服务外包承接国经济环境的量化评价。最后,依据相关理论和实证分析结果,给出针对性政策建议。本文主要创新之处包括：第一,通过借鉴印度数据,寻找近十年来有说服力和较强数据支持的中国承接服务业外包的规模,从而寻求合适的替代变量将中国承接服务业外包的规模加以量化。第二,通过引入统计学中的主成分分析方法,对中印两国近十年承接服务业外包经济环境加以测度,实现两国服务外包经济环境的量化分析。本文通过对中国和印度承接服务外包经济环境考察的研究结果表明,中印两国服务外包的经济环境都有效的促进了两国服务外包产业的发展。但中国在2003年以后,其服务外包经济环境的改善程度显著滞后于服务外包产业的发展,而印度在1998-2007年间,服务外包经济环境的改善一直同步于服务外包产业的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the development of information and communication technology, the service globalization has been growing in an accelerating trend and become an important part of economic integration. In this movement, countries in the world participate in the international division of labor via service outsourcing industry. Do what you do best, outsource the rest! Essentially, service outsourcing industry uses the division of labor to reorganize the existing mode of production.In the past thirty years, with the advantage of labor cost and market size, China has undertaken a large number of manufacturing industries and known as the "World Factory". However, with labor cost rising, growing shortage of natural resources, as well as the progressive deterioration of ecological environment, it is necessary for China to transform the mode of economic growth and enhance its position in the global production chain. With the development of service outsourcing industry, it would be an important way for China to promote the internationalization of services. Meanwhile, India’s service industry has been developing rapidly in recent years. With the opportunity of resolving Millennium Bug and the advantages of language and human resources, India has become the most important destination of service outsourcing industry. And India has become the "World Office" with the development of service outsourcing industry. In the process of undertaking service outsourcing, a better economic environment would surely promote the development of service outsourcing industry. With the examination of the economic environment of the service outsourcing undertaking countries via scientific methods, we would explain why could India become the most important destination of service outsourcing industry and reveal China’s current economic environment to undertake service outsourcing.The basic analytical framework for this thesis is as follows:After reviewing the relevant theory and literature review, firstly we theoretically analyzed the undertaking service outsourcing countries’economic environment. We obtained eight factors for countries to impact undertaking service outsourcing from macro, sectoral and micro levels. After that we used the method of econometrics to make the significance test between relevant factors and scales of China and India’s undertaking service outsourcing, and removed variables which have no significant correlation. And then, we extracted principal components by Principal Component Analysis and measure the economic environments of China and India undertaking service outsourcing over the past decade. Finally, we gave specific policy recommendations according to the theoretical and empirical analysis.The principal innovation of this thesis is as follows:firstly, by referring Indian data, we found suitable alternative to the variable of the scale of China’s undertaking service outsourcing. Secondly, we used Principal Component Analysis in Statistics to measure the economic environments of China and India undertaking service outsourcing. The result showed that the economic environment of the two countries had promoted the service outsourcing industry. But the improvement pace of the economic environment has lagged the development of service outsourcing industry in China since 2003.The economic environment has been synchronized in the development of service outsourcing industry in India from 1998 to 2007.更多还原