【作者】 赵蕾；

【导师】 王生全； 王铮；

【作者基本信息】 西安科技大学 ， 环境工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国规划环境影响评价的开展,我国正在积极推进规划层次上的环评,对其评价方法提出了更高的要求。当前国内外所用方法缺乏环境与经济社会相联系起来和在决策中体现规划环评结果的方法,没有从系统的角度考虑一个动态的、复杂系统的环境影响因素。因此,很有必要开发综合的操作性更强的方法和模型以解决这些问题。本研究即在系统分析规划环境影响的基础上,运用系统动力学,对煤炭规划环境影响评价进行环境影响预测分析,是将SD模型应用于煤炭规划环评的一次尝试,在此方面做一些探索性研究。陕北榆林因能源资源富集,是正在建设的国家级能源重化工基地,有力的推动了地区经济的发展。同时也使榆林成为西煤东运的源头、西气东输的腹地、西电东送的枢纽,从而成为名副其实的国家新型能源接续地和中国第一产能大市。随着陕北榆林能源资源的开发利用,生态环境的脆弱性表现愈趋明显,主要表现为地表坍塌、地下水下降、土地沙化、河流断流、湿地萎缩、自然灾害和环境污染等。这些环境问题的存在对榆林资源的开发利用和区域经济社会的可持续性发展构成深度制约。研究陕北能源化工基地环境可持续发展状况对科学合理地开发与利用区域能源资源具有重要意义。文本采用系统动力学(SD)方法,系统研究榆神矿区区域人口、资源、经济和环境等规划环境影响评价内容,并对榆神矿区的社会发展、资源勘探开发、环境发展趋势三大方面进行了预测。仿真预测结果表明在以后的发展时间里,该地区的空气质量将会有所好转,工业废水和工业固体废物污染较重。因此,我们提出提高污染处理能力、减少污染物排放量、增加环保投资、落实生态环境治理责任以及加强环保监督等改善矿区环境状况的对策与建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As Carring out the Environmental Impact Assessment in our country, we also Actively promote the Strategic Environmental Assessment.But it Requested the Higher demands in Spatial and temporal scales. The method is currently a lack of domestic and international environment and the economy and society in the decision-making linked to reflect the results of the EIA planning methods, not from the system point of view of a dynamic, complex system of environmental impact factors. The accuracy of these deficiencies led to poor results are not satisfactory, the development of mitigation measures such as the lack of detail, therefore, it is necessary to develop a more comprehensive operational methods and models to address these problems. In the systematic analysis of the environmental impact of planning on the basis of the proposed system dynamics is applied in planning the specific environmental impact assessment methods and the idea of dynamic assessment.Yulin enrichment due to energy resources, as China’s "Kuwait", is building a state-level energy and heavy chemical industry base, a strong impetus to regional economic development. At the same time, also become the West Yulin coal shipped East of the source of the hinterland of West-East Gas Pipeline, the West-East Power Transmission Project, which is a genuine continuation of the country and new energy production capacity in China market. Yulin as the development and utilization of energy resources, the vulnerability of the ecological environment was increasingly clear that the collapse of the main surface and groundwater decline, land desertification, rivers, wetlands shrink, natural disasters and environmental pollution. The existence of these environmental issues on the development and utilization of resources in Yulin and regional economic and social development of the depth of the sustainability constraints. Study on energy chemical industry base in northern Shaanxi environmentally sustainable development of science and rational development and utilization of regional energy resources is important. The text of the use of system dynamics (SD) method, system Yushenfu mining regional population, resources, economic and environmental impact assessment of the contents of the Planning, Environment and Yushenfu mining area of social development, resource exploration and development, environmental aspects of the development trend of the three the forecast. Simulation results show that the development of the next period, the region will be improved air quality, industrial wastewater and solid waste pollution heavy industry. Therefore, we proposed to increase the handling capacity of pollution to reduce emissions and increase investment in environmental protection, management responsibility for the implementation of the ecological environment and to strengthen environmental protection and supervision to improve environmental conditions in northern Shaanxi, the countermeasures and suggestions.更多还原