【作者】 张蕊；

【导师】 丁言强；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 西方经济学， 2009， 硕士

【副题名】以山东省为例

【摘要】 改革开放以来,山东省经济建设取得了巨大的成就,是全国经济增长最快的省份之一,其国民经济正处于一个新的扩张时期。自2006年下半年以来,受国家宏观调控政策影响,全省社会固定资产投资从高位迅速回落,山东固定资产投资在经济增长中发挥了重要的作用,但也存在一些问题,因此,有必要对山东省固定资产投资与经济增长的关系做深入的研究。本文将从理论和实证的角度分析山东省固定资产投资对经济增长的影响和作用。采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法:定性分析从统计数据着手,针对山东省固定资产投资总量规模、投资结构等方面进行分析,提出固定资产投资存在的问题;然后根据协整模型、Granger因果关系模型、误差修正模型以及C-D生产函数来分析固定资产投资对经济增长的影响。固定资产投资与经济增长存在长期均衡关系和短期的误差修正关系。从协整模型来看,固定资产投资对经济增长的长期弹性为0.7798,即固定资产投资每增加1%,经济增长0.7798%;从误差修正模型来看固定资产投资对经济增长的短期弹性为0.3319;即短期内固定资产投资变动1%,经济增长0.3319%;固定资产头与经济增长存在双向格兰杰因果关系;从人均GDP增长模型来看,固定资产投资对经济增长的弹性为66.78%,经济增长主要是靠投资拉动的。在实证分析的基础上,结合已有理论研究成果,得出优化固定资产投资的政策建议,从而在经济持续稳定增长的背景下,确定山东省固定资产投资方向、策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economy of Shandong province has made significant achievements since the reform and opening-up; and has been one of the fastest growing economies in national economy, also the economy is in the new period of expansion. Since the latter half of 2006, the fixed assets investment has fell from the peak because of the influence of macro-economic control. Fixed assets investment has played an important role in propelling regional economic growth; however, there are still some problems in investment of Shandong province. Therefore, it is need to make a deep study on the effects caused by fixed assets investment in Shandong province.This paper analyzes the effect of fixed assets investment in the economic growth from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Firstly, this paper analyzes and summarizes the theory and research that are related to investment and economy growth, which can make theoretic foundations. Secondly, the paper analyses the gross of fixed assets investment and the structure of investment on the basis of macro statistics. The Empirical analysis contains Co-integrate Regression and Granger Causality Test and Error correction model, which are used to analyze the effect of fixed assets investment in the economic growth.The long term balance relationship between fixed assets investment and economic growth shows that the GDP’s elasticity is 0.7798, which means that investment adds 1 percent, GDP adds 0.7798 percent; and the short term Error Correction shows that the GDP’s elasticity is 0.3319, and if the investment adds 1 percent, GDP adds 0.3319 percent; the Granger Causality Test shows that they have bipartite causality, the Per capita GDP model shows that the contribution of fixed assets to economic growth is 0.6678, and fixed assets investment plays an vital part in driving economic growth.At last, some policy and recommendations for fixed assets investment would be given based on the empirical research above, so that we can confirm the direction and strategy of fixed assets investment in the content of sustainable economic growth.更多还原