【作者】 徐锐；

【导师】 周国华；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 在全球经济危机的影响下,国家采取积极的财政政策,提出“保增长、扩内需、调结构”的方针,加大基础设施建设力度,目前各地的地铁建设项目建设提上日程。在加地铁建设力度的同时,应重视地铁建设项目的经济评价研究,以确保项目的的经济效益、社会效益的实现和项目的顺利实施。本文从项目经济评价的研究现状出发,首先,对国内外相关文献及研究成果中的主要内容进行总结性概括,系统学习项目风险评价方法。其次,分析项目财务评价、国民经济评价指标的选取,采用财务内部收益率、财务净现值、动态投资回收期、平均投资利润率等盈利能力指标和贷款偿还期、资产负债率、流动比率等偿债能力指标进行财务评价,采用经济内部收益率和经济挣现值进行国民经济评价。然后,在经济评价的基础上,引入风险因素敏感度进行指标权重的确定,运用模糊评价的方法构建地铁建设项目投资风险评价模型。最后,结合上海地铁九号线二期工程项目实际情况进行实证分析,对项目基础数据进行分析,评价项目的财务和国民经济指标,并在此基础上以内部收益率IRR为评价指标,考虑客票价格、运量、投资、运营成本,对项目投资风险进行评价研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the impact of global economic crisis, the state has adopted a proactive fiscal policy, put forward a policy as "capital growth, expand domestic demand, transfer structure". At the meantime, the government strength the effort to increase infrastructure construction, and many metropolis of our country put the subway construction on the agenda, which should pay attention to the economic evaluation studies in order to ensure the economic and social benefits, and realize the smoothimplementation of projects.From the view of the current situation of Economic Evaluation, first of all, this paper summarized the domestic and foreign research results, and studied the project risk assessment method.Secondly, evaluating the financial situation on the base of analyzed solvency indicators, as project financial evaluation, economic evaluation of selected indicators, the return rate of financial internal, financial net present value, dynamic investment recovery period, the average profitability of investment and other indicators of profitability and loan maturity, asset-liability ratio, current ratio etc, and do the economic evaluation of the net present value using economic internal rate of return.Then, on the foundation of economic evaluation, this paper lead in the sensitivity of the introduction of risk factors to determine the index weight, building a subway construction project risk assessment model by using the fuzzy evaluation method.Finally, we studied the Investment risks of the project evaluation of the 9th Shanghai Metro Line 2 project as an empirical analysis, by analyzing the project’s foundation data, evaluating the financial and economic indicators, and on this basis to IRR internal rate of return for the evaluation of indicators, considering tickets price, capacity, investment, operating costs.更多还原