【作者】 高洪文；

【导师】 杨红；

【作者基本信息】 新疆农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 1978年以来的经济体制改革,改变了城乡内部的收入分配制度,伴随着经济增长,城乡居民收入在迅速提高的同时,差距也在波动中不断扩大。城乡居民收入差距问题已引起学界的广泛关注。由于他们各自考察问题的视角不同,运用的方法不同,对这一问题的认识存在差异。因此,多角度地深入研究城乡居民收入差距的变化趋势及其影响因素,探讨城乡居民收入差距的变动轨迹和作用机理,具有重要的理论意义。论文在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上,借助计量经济和多元统计分析方法,对改革开放以来新疆城乡居民收入差距及其影响因素进行了实证研究、对未来十几年新疆城乡收入差距进行了预测、对新疆城乡收入差距的合理性进行了探讨,在借鉴已有研究的基础上就缩小新疆城乡居民收入差距,提出了一些对策建议。全文的主要内容如下:首先,全面回顾和比较分析了中国及新疆城乡居民收入差距的变动轨迹,分析其变动的阶段性特征,并运用泰尔指数分解法测算城乡居民收入差距对总体收入差距的贡献程度.从城乡居民收入比率、城乡基尼系数的变动轨迹比较,新疆城乡居民收入比率变动趋势与全国变动趋势基本相同,总体上呈现增长的趋势,但新疆城乡居民收入比率在1992年以后高于全国。其次,对改革开放以来新疆城乡居民收入差距及其影响因素进行了定性分析和实证研究,并对未来十几年新疆城乡收入差距进行了预测。由计量经济模型预测,在未来13年里,在国家未出台关于农业和农村经济发展方面重大政策措施的假定下,虽然城乡居民收入绝对额都会增加,但是城乡居民收入之比将会进一步扩大,预计新疆城乡居民收入之比由2007年的3. 33扩大到2015年3.88、2020年的4.30。在国家持续出台一系列的重大惠农政策的假定下,通过加大对“三农”的投入,使农民收入有较大的提高,但新疆城乡居民收入之比仍将呈现扩大趋势,将由2007年的3. 2 4扩大到2015年的3.77、2020年的4.18。因此,新疆未来13年缩小城乡收入差距的任务非常艰巨。再次,对新疆城乡收入差距的适度性进行了探讨,把收入差距分解为合法合理的收入差距、合法不合理的收入差距、既不合法也不合理的收入差距,并提出了具体的计算方法。最后,在前文分析论证的基础上,得出研究结论,并借鉴国内外缩小城乡居民收入差距的经验,提出政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economic restructuring carried out since 1978 has greatly changed the income distribution system between city and rural with a much faster speed. Along with the economic growth, the income of the residents of urban and rural areas increases rapidly, but the gap between them is becoming bigger and bigger. This problem has aroused abroad attention within academic circles. With different reviewing sights and analytical means, for this problem, scholars come to various cognitions . So it is of great importance to change trend and its influence elements from many points.On the reference of other research results,through econometrics and mulitivariate statistical analysis, this paper discusses change features of the city and rural resident income in Xinjiang since the reform and opening-up, the paper forecasts the alteration tendency of income gap of xinjiang in the coming thirteen years. the paper discusses the reasonable range of income gap and its reasonless degree at present. and puts forward some suggestions and policy measures for the problem of balancing income gap between city and rural areas in Xinjiang.The following are the main contents:Firstly, the paper reviews and compares the change trace of income gap between urban residents and rural residents in Xinjiang and China, and analyzes periodic characters of the change and measures the contribution ratio of the income gap for the gross income gap by the methods of the Theil index analysis.the income ratio between urban and rural residents in Xinjiang is basically in line with that of the nation and shows increasing trend, but the ratio is higher than the nation’s ratio after 1992,Secondly, this paper process empirical analysis of the city and rural resident income gap inXinjiang since the reform and opening-up, the paper forecasts the alteration tendency of income gap of Xinjiang in the coming thirteen years By econometric mode, it’s forecasted that the index of the income gap will be further expanded if the central government doesn’t make policies to boost the development of agriculture and rural economy. By 2015, the index maybe 3.88 and in 2020 it will be 4.30. If the central government enact packages of helpful policies for agriculture such as more investment and increasing the farmers income, the index still will go up steadily. it will be 3.77 in 2015 and 4.18 in 2020. the task that decrease of income gap in Xinjiang is very difficult.Thirdly, the paper discusses the reasonable range of income gap and its reasonless degree at present.it consists of three parts: legal and reasonable incom gap,legal and reasonless incom gap, illegimate and reasonless incom gap.Finally, the paper put forwards policy suggestions to balance the income gap between urban and rural residents.更多还原