【作者】 耿燕礼；

【导师】 张举钢；

【作者基本信息】 石家庄经济学院 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 人类社会的进步依靠经济的发展,而经济的发展又必须依赖能源的支撑和保障。改革开放以来,河北省经济取得了长足的进展,这与河北省能源产业的强有力支撑是密不可分的。但是河北省的能源发展存在很多问题,能源生产和消费结构不合理、能源利用效率低下等问题尤为突出。随着经济的发展,河北省能源供需缺口不断拉大,河北省“十一五”发展规划目标受到严重威胁,因此河北省经济发展的能源保障问题已经提上日程。本文从河北省省情出发,采用定性和定量相结合的分析方法,分析了河北省经济发展的能源保障问题。全文包括以下五个部分:第一部分:介绍选题的背景和意义。介绍了能源保障的内涵以及能源保障在社会经济发展中的重要性,从而得出研究地区经济发展的能源保障问题的必要性。回顾分析了国内外学者在能源保障方面的研究成果,借鉴这些成果找出研究能源保障问题的思路和突破口。第二部分:阐述能源与经济发展的关系。回顾了能源发展演进的历史以及能源是如何作为一种生产要素成为经济学研究对象的,进一步阐述了能源与经济发展的相互关系:经济发展需要能源的支撑,反过来经济发展也对能源产业的发展具有促进作用。第三部分:从河北省省情入手分析了河北省在能源生产和能源消费方面存在的问题:能源供需结构不平衡,自给率逐年降低;能源消费结构不平衡,一次能源消费中,煤炭所占比重太高;能源消费的行业结构不合理,第二产业比重太高;能源消费的效率远低于全国平均水平。第四部分:利用定性和定量分析方法,从能源生产、能源消费、能源利用效率等方面分析了河北省经济发展的能源保障程度,在此基础上对河北省能源—经济—环境协调度进行了综合评价。经过分析,河北省能源生产与生产总值之间不具有协整关系,但具有双向因果关系;在能源消费方面,通过RRS因素分析法分析了影响河北省能源消费的因素,并利用RRS分析模型预测了河北省在2010年能源消费量。经过对河北省能源—经济—环境协调度进行综合分析,发现该分析结果与河北省能源生产、能源消费以及能源利用效率分析结果一致,即河北省经济发展的能源保障度比较低。第五部分:对河北省经济发展的能源保障的分析给出结论,根据结论提出了提高河北省能源保障程度的对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The progress of human society depends on economic development and economic development depends on energy security. Hebei Province has made considerable economic development since reform and openness, what is inseparable from the strong support of energy industries in Hebei Province. However, there are many problems of energy industries in Hebei Province, such as unreasonable energy production and consumption structure and inefficient energy use. With economic development, energy supply and demand gap in Hebei Province has widen and widen and Hebei Province 11th Five-Year Development Plan targets is under serious threat, so the in Hebei Province has been put on the agenda.This article from the present situation in Hebei Province, studies the economic development of energy security in Hebei Province by qualitative and quantitative analysis. The article has following five parts:The first part introduces the background and significance of the topic. In this part, the article reaches a conclusion that it is essential to study the energy security of regional economic development by introducing the connotation and the importance of energy security. In addition, the article summarizes domestic and foreign scholars’ researches on energy security and finds a breakthrough to study energy security by drawing lessons from these researches.The second part describes the relations between the energy and economic development. The article by recalling the history of energy development makes a conclusion that economic development depends on energy, on the other hand economic development promotes the development of energy industry.In the third part, the article from the present situation in Hebei Province points out the following problems of energy production and consumption in Hebei province: the structure of energy supply and demand is imbalance ; self-sufficiency rate decreased every year; the structure of energy consumption is imbalance because the proportion of coal consumption in primary energy consumption is too high; energy consumption in industry structure is irrational because the proportion of secondary industry is too high; the efficiency of energy consumption is under the national average seriously.The fourth part analyzes the level of energy security of economic development in Hebei Province by qualitative and quantitative method, from energy production, energy consumption, energy efficiency and so on. Basing it the article evaluates the energy-economy-environment coordination of Hebei Province. Although cointegration relations don’t exist between energy production and GDP in Hebei Province, two-way causal relations exist. The article analyzes the factors affecting energy consumption in Hebei Province by RRS factor analysis and predicts Hebei Province energy consumption in 2010 through the RRS-model. Through the above analysis the article draws a conclusion that the level of energy security of economic development in Hebei Province is lower.In the fifth part the article proposes suggestions to improve the level of energy security of economic development in Hebei Province on the basis of the analysis on the energy security of economic development in Hebei Province.更多还原