【作者】 韩梅琳；

【导师】 郑建国；

【作者基本信息】 东华大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 在供应链风险管理的相关研究文献中,研究不确定性环境下的供应商选择与协商机制、配送网络设计、运输路线设计、库存控制、供应合同设计、外包和采购策略、供应链协调机制、生产网络设计等间接涉及到供应链风险的文章很多,但是风险因素或来源的识别并非易事,风险量化的工具和方法在不同的行业中具有不同的标准,因此,供应链风险管理理论的研究至今处于探索阶段。而在产业界,现代供应链的物流、信息流、资金流在突发的、灾难性的事件前所表现出来的脆弱性,促使企业对供应链的结构、战略及外部环境的不确定性开始重视。鉴于此,以供应链中断风险分析及协调管理为研究课题,对提高供应链竞争力具有十分重要的理论价值和现实意义。论文站在对相关供应链风险文献综述的的基础上,提出供应链中断是研究供应链风险时最值得关注的一种风险类型。基于这个的观点,构建了供应链中断类型、失败模式、中断来源及因素识别的关系图。进一步,论文针对中断风险的小概率、识别难的问题,引入贝叶斯统计方法和功能质量展开的基本原理,从风险管理的生命周期角度出发,建立了一个供应链中断管理过程模型。该模型在中断因素至不确定对象、不确定对象至关键业务流程的识别过程中所引入的不确定性的估计方法,是本文的创新点之一。此外论文的主要贡献还在于围绕所提出的供应链中断分类:(1)提出了突发供应中断下的两阶段供应链协调信号传递博弈模型,利用生产商的激励策略作为两种供应中断情形下风险信息不共享的供应链应急协调工具,把供应商的可承诺交货量作为显示真实供应中断程度的信号,最后,根据模型的求解分析得出信号传递博弈模型分离均衡和混合均衡下的协调策略;(2)重点论述了供应链需求中断对供应链带来影响的范围,通过对需求中断的情景进行深入讨论,提出了以市场或公众的质疑为风险审视的视角、以全面收集市场信息为基础和以积极的态度来采取果断行动的协调策略原理,有助于企业高层提高对信息收集和公关能力的思想意识;运用系统动力学的原理和方法构建了传统库存管理模式和供应商库存管理模式下供应链各阶段库存水平的模型,通过突发事件辅助变量来模拟两种不同库存管理方式下的供应链各阶段库存的变化情况,并根据仿真的结果进行统计分析,描述各物流中断情景发生在不同库存管理模式下所表现出来的规律,提出了有针对性的供应链库存风险防范及协调策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 In those researches about supply chain risk management, most focus on indirect risk management by studying supplier selection and coordination mechanism, delivery network designing, stock controlling, supply contract designing, outsourcing and purchasing policy, supply chain coordination mechanism, manufacture network designing under an environment with uncertainty, but it’s hard to recognize risk sources, or risk quantification and risk avoidance strategies are totally different in various kind of industries. Therefore, the research on supply chain risk management is still on the exploration phase. On the other hand, in practice, modern logistics, information and cash always show vulnerabilities before emergency, which makes manager has to have a new look at the structure, strategy and environment of supply chain. So, Studying supply chain risk management, especially for its disruption risk and coordination management has great value in theory as well as practice.The paper started from reviewing related researches and articles, from which conclusions were integrated and made that disruption on supply chain should be considered mostly. Based on this conception, the relationship diagram of supply chain disruption category, its’ failure model and disruption source was conceived. Then, principles of Quantity Function Development and Bayesian Statistics were introduced to solve the problem of small probability and hard risk source recognition, as a result, a supply chain disruption risk management process model was proposed from the whole life cycle of risk management. This model has its innovation in QFD and Bayesian used to link disruption factors with uncertainties and even from uncertainties to key business process.Besides, the other contributions of supply chain disruption risk analysis and coordination management are:(1) Signaling Game Model for two stage supply chain under supply disruption was proposed, which uses the encourage policy of manufacture as the basic tool to coordinate supply chain when information about disruption is unshared between supplier and manufacture, and the amount of acceptable deliveries is applied as the signal which truly reflects the degree of supply disruption. At the end of this model, two kinds of coordination strategies were analyzed.(2) Efforts were made to demonstrate scope impacted by demand disruption happened on supply chain. By deeply discussing scenarios of demand disruption, principle of coordination that from the point view of questions from customers and market, how to collect all round information about demand risk and how to take the initiate was concluded, which helps manager to enhance their awareness of information collection and ability to deal with market reflection in an reasonable way.(3) System Dynamics was used to establish a model describing stock levels on different stages of supply chain. And an assistant variable reflecting the degree of logistics disruption was introduced. Hence logistics disruption happening between supplier and warehouse as well as logistics disruption happening between warehouse and retailer were modeled. At last, coordination strategies about how to adopt reasonable stock policy were proposed according to the model simulation.更多还原