基于博弈论视角下虹桥交通枢纽危机管理模式研究

【作者】 李鑫；

【导师】 滕五晓；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 随着世界经济增长的重心逐渐向亚太地区转移和中国正在成为世界经济新的增长极,中国参与国际分工的领域R益拓展宽广,配置资源的区域范围日益扩大,尤其中国东部沿海地区,凭借得天独厚的地理位置和政策支撑,推动了沿海地区经济的持续快速发展,而上海无疑又是沿海地区经济发展最迅速的地区之一,本着服务全国、服务长江流域、服务长三角的原则,结合虹桥机场扩建、高铁上海站重新选址、磁悬浮城际与市域规划“三大契机”,上海市政府提出了建设面向全国、服务长三角的“虹桥综合交通枢纽”的规划。虹桥综合交通枢纽是涵盖航空港、高铁、城际铁路、磁悬浮、城市轨道交通、公交车和出租车等多种交通方式,轨、路、空三位一体的日旅客吞吐量在110万人次的超大型、世界级交通枢纽中心,虹桥综合交通枢纽的建设,有利于加强上海与长三角其它城市联系,提升上海作为国际航运中心的整体服务效率,提升上海国际航运中心的综合竞争力,为促进长三角地区社会、经济及至整个区域经济发展具有重大作用。虹桥综合交通枢纽规模的宏大性、人流的集聚性及管理主体的多单元性,这些因素都导致危险源和隐患的增加。一旦事故发生,容易产生连锁反应,引起灾害的规模扩大,造成严重灾难性的后果,而且由于灾害的波及性,虹桥枢纽现有的专业应急管理机构,如消防、公安、交警、医疗卫生机构,如果仅从各自专业角度履行应急职责,应对危机的快速反应能力和应急处理权力都显得非常有限。因此针对虹桥综合交通枢纽,必须认真加以研究并提出科学性、可操作性、高效统一的危机管理模式。本文以危机管理理论、管理学理论和经济学的有关方法为依据,在对虹桥综合交通枢纽内部及其相关组成单元调查和论证的基础上,着重探讨危机管理组织体系原则和危机管理组织体系,构建适合虹桥综合交通枢纽运行特征的危机管理模式,然后通过构造博弈论局中人、策略空间和支付函数,对虹桥枢纽危机管理模式进行不完全信息的动态博弈论分析,以使管理模式更加符合实际、更具有操作性和完备性。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the heart of world economic growth shifting gradually to the Asia-Pacific region and China being the world’s new economic engine,China deepens itself in the field of international division of labor and area division of resource allocation. Particularly,the east China coastal area facilitates continuing and rapid development by its unique geographical position and policy support.With no doubt,Shanghai is one of the fastest economic developed districts in the coastal area.According to the principle of serving the nation,the Yangtze River Valley and the Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai government indicates the "Hongqiao Comprehensive Transportation Hub" plan,which face the nation and service the Yangtze River Delta,by integrating the "three chances" - expansion of Hongqiao airport,relocation of Shanghai station of high speed rail and inter-city and urban plan of magnetic vehicle.Hongqiao Comprehensive Transportation Hub covers all kinds of transportation such as airport,high speed rail,inter-city railway,magnetic vehicle,city rail transport, bus and taxi.It is a super large world-class transportation hub with a large amount of daily passengers of 1.1 million,integrating rail,road and air transportation.The construction of Hongqiao Comprehensive Transportation Hub is good to facilitate traffic between Shanghai and other cities in Yangtze River Delta,and enhance both the overall service efficiency and comprehensive competitiveness of Shanghai as the international shipping center.It has a major role in the social and economic improvement of Yangtze River Delta region and the economic development of the whole district.It increases dangerous source and hidden danger resulting from the large scale of Hongqiao Comprehensive Transportation Hub,the high pedestrian flow and the multiple management bodies.Once there is an accident,it will easily cause a ripple effect,leading a disaster to a larger scale and bringing about a severe disastrous consequence.Affected by the disaster,the current professional emergency management agencies of Hongqiao Hub,such as the fire department,public security, traffic police and medical and health institutions,would take necessary action separately.However,it will limit the quick-reaction capability and the emergency treatment power in front of crisis if the emergency management agencies discharging emergent duty by using their own professional view only.Thus,we must study it seriously and point out a scientific,operational,efficient and centralized crisis management model for Hongqiao Comprehensive Transportation Hub.On the basis of relative methods in crisis management theory,management theory and economics,and investigation and demonstration of the inner and related component elements of Hongqiao Comprehensive Transportation Hub,this paper focuses on the research of crisis management organizational system and its principles, constructing the crisis management model suitable for the operation features of Hongqiao Comprehensive Transportation Hub.It also builds players,strategy space and payoff function to make dynamic game theory analysis with incomplete information to the crisis management model of Hongqiao hub.This leads to a more practical,operational and complete management model.更多还原