【作者】 余燕；

【导师】 吴骏；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 企业管理及其信息化， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 当今汇率的频繁变动已经引起了各国政府、金融机构、企业以及学术界的普遍关注和高度重视。随着中国经济的对外开放度和依存度越来越高,作为联系国内外经济“桥梁”的人民币汇率越来越成为人们最为关注的焦点之一。本文首先回顾并分析了人民币名义汇率、实际汇率以及实际有效汇率的历史走势,运用动态购买力平价理论,基于国际比较项目组(ICP)提供的截面数据,分别计算出以1993年和以2005年为基准年的2005年世界各国相对价格水平,并对两者进行比较分析得出:升值将是人民币汇率的长期趋势。然后,本文回顾并总结了美元、欧元和日元三大货币的国际化进程及其对汇率走势的影响,从而分析得出人民币国际化对人民币长期汇率长期走势的影响。最后,综合分析近年来我国国际收支的状况,同样得出升值将是人民币汇率的长期走势。更多还原

【Abstract】 The frequent fluctuation of exchange rate has arise general concern and high recognition of governments, financial institutions, enterprises and academia. With the increasing opening up and high degree of affiliation of China’s economy with the world, exchange rate of RMB, the bridge which contract domestic economy with abroad, has become one of the most important focus of attention.This paper first reviews and analyzes the history movements of Nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate and real effective exchange rate of RMB. Based on the cross-sectional data provided by International Comparison Project (ICP) and by using the dynamic purchasing power parity theory, we calculated the relative price level of all countries in the world based on 1993 and 2005 separately, and draw a comparative analysis that the long-term exchange rate of RMB will appreciates.Then the paper reviewed the process of internationalization of the Dollar, Euro and Yen this three major currencies and summarized its impact on the movements of exchange rates. Thus we educe that the internationalization of the RMB will lead the long-term exchange rate of RMB appreciated. Finally, we make a comprehensive analysis of China’s international balance of payments situation in recent years, and also draw a same conclusion that the long-term exchange rate of RMB will appreciates.更多还原