【作者】 刘鹏；

【导师】 杨振宏；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 榆林市经济不断增长,人民的生活水平不断的提高的同时,也出现了巨大的负面的影响—生产安全事故。仅2008年,榆林市共发生各类事故528起,死亡300人,受伤294人,直接经济损失1706万元。榆林市生产安全事故灾害损失大、救助困难、影响范围大,不但关系到榆林市正常的生产运行,而且也给人民群众造成了极大的生命财产损失,榆林市经济的发展与安全生产状况的矛盾日益凸现。因此,按照“安全第一,预防为主、综合治理”的科学理念,建立榆林市安全生产预警系统,有助于榆林市生产的健康、安全、有序的发展,具有重大的经济社会效益。本文以榆林市生产安全事故灾害为研究对象,以安全系统工程和预警管理理论为研究基础,通过统计分析,揭示榆林市生产安全事故灾害的成因机理及演变过程,从而探讨如何构建榆林市安全生产预警系统。本文介绍榆林市概况,分析了榆林市安全生产现状以及事故发生的规律,明确了榆林市安全管理现状,指出了榆林市安全生产存在的核心问题。论文针对榆林市生产安全事故灾害现状及特征分析,结合法国数学家雷勒·托姆的突变理论,系统分析了榆林市安全生产系统(人—物—管理)中各致灾因素,并构建了榆林市生产安全事故灾害突变模型,形象分析了生产安全事故灾害致灾机理及发展演变规律。论文运用预警理论和安全系统工程理论,结合榆林市安全生产现状,探讨了榆林市安全生产预警系统的构建。明确了榆林市安全生产预警功能;提出了榆林市安全生产预警系统的总体框架和组织结构;阐述了榆林市安全生产预警指挥中心的构建和运作模式,叙述了榆林市生产安全事故灾害预警程序和构建的措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With rapid economic growth in Yulin and continuously increase of people’s living standard,the tremendous side-effects has also been arisen in Yulin.Only in 2008,Yulin had 528 accidents all together,with 300 casualties and 294 injuries,and the direct economic lost was 17.06 million.In Yulin,the loss because of the production safety accidents is great,the salvation difficult,and the range of the impact wide,which not only influence the process of production,but also cause the great life and property loss to the people.The antinomy between the economic development and the safe production is more and more apparent in Yunlin.Therefore,a Production Safety Early Warning system of Yulin city must be established under the regulation of "Set safety first,centre on prevention and manage multiples".It would certainly redound to a healthy,safely,and well-ordered production of Yulin city and bring a great economic and social effect.This article will study the production safety accidents in Yulin City,and uncover its cause and developing process through statistical analysis based on safety system engineering and pre-warning management theory,so as to investigate how to construct the pre-warning system for production safety in Yulin.This article describes overview of Yulin City,it analyzes a safety management status,as well as the existing problem in Yulin City,and it clears the status of safety management in Yulin City,and points out the existence the core the problem of safe production in Yulin City.It systematically analyzes each disaster-causing factors of safety production system (Human being-object-Management) in Yunlin city in connection with the safety production status,casualty and characteristic analysis,combined with the French mathematician Daurelle Thorn’s catastrophe theory.It also builds the casualty catastrophe model of safety production and casualty,and analyzes vividly disaster-causing mechanism of safety production accidents and evolvement rules.By use of early warning and safety system engineering theroies and combining the present state of safety production in Yulin city,the paper discusses the construction of the early warning system of safety production in Yulin.Early the function of the early warning system of safety production in Yulin;Made the overall framework and organizational structure of the early warning system of safety production in Yulin;State the construction and operation mode of Yulin Warning Control Center for Safe Production,describe the warning process and construction measures for production safety accident disasters in Yulin City.更多还原