【作者】 刘慧；

【导师】 张珍花；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 统计学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 经济增长因素研究是一个国家和地区经济发展的重要课题。20世纪90年代以来,镇江市的经济得到巨大的发展,经济总量以及人均产值不断提高,综合经济实力显著增强,人民生活水平有了极大的改善,社会经济等各个方面都取得了较大的进步。镇江市经济增长背后的推动因素是什么,这些因素对经济增长的贡献如何,镇江市在实现经济快速增长的同时如何实现社会、经济的全面协调和可持续发展,这是我们面临的主要问题。因此本文对镇江市经济增长因素进行研究,显然具有十分重要的现实意义。本文以经济学、统计学、计量经济学等学科的知识为基础,以经济增长理论为指导,以镇江市为研究对象,运用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,对镇江市经济增长因素进行分析。本文首先从经济总量和增长速度、人均GDP和人均收入、产业结构、经济效益、对外关联性、经济发展潜力和资源状况等方面对镇江市经济发展现状进行了分析和描述。其次,参照新经济增长理论模型,根据相关数据的可获得性和可操作性并结合镇江市经济发展的具体情况,将R&D投入、人力资本、产业结构和对外开放指数引入Cobb-Douglas生产函数,建立扩展的Cobb-Douglas生产函数模型。以镇江市1996-2006年的统计数据为基础,运用主成份回归分析法,对镇江市的经济增长因素进行实证分析,测定劳动力投入、资本投入、R&D投入、人力资本、产业结构调整和对外开放的产出弹性系数以及各要素投入对经济增长的拉动作用和贡献率。为了更加清晰地认识镇江市经济增长的特征,本文还将镇江市与南京市、苏州市的经济增长因素进行了比较研究。最后,结合镇江市的实际,从科技创新、提高资本利用率和劳动生产率、人力资本积累、产业结构调整、对外开放、可持续发展等角度提出促进镇江市经济增长的建议。研究认为,在镇江市经济增长的六大影响因素中,劳动力投入对经济增长的影响很弱;对外开放对经济增长的贡献相对较小,没有发挥应有的作用;资本投入、R&D投入、人力资本、产业结构调整对经济增长的作用显著,成为推动镇江市经济增长的主要动力。镇江市的经济增长主要是通过要素投入量的高增长来实现的,要素投入发挥的效能不高。对此,镇江市应扩大投资规模和资金来源,改善投资结构,提高投资效率;重视科技进步,加快科技创新;树立人力资源观念,重视人力资本积累,提高劳动者素质;加快产业结构调整和优化升级;发展开放型经济,加快对外开放的步伐;大力发展循环经济,促进镇江市经济健康持续的增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 Analysis of economic growth factors is an important problem of economic development for a state or region.The economy of Zhenjiang has obtained huge development,the economic output as well as the average per person output is being enhanced unceasingly,the overall economic strength has markedly increased,people’s living standards has greatly improved and all aspects of socio-economic have also made great progress since 1990s.What impetus Zhenjiang’s economic growth unceasingly? What contribution do these factors do in the economic growth? How to realize the harmonious development of economy and society of Zhenjiang? The research on the economic growth factors of Zhenjiang has very important and realistic meaning.Directed by the theories of economic growth and using the methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,this paper researched on the economic growth factors of Zhenjiang on the basis of knowledge of Economics,Statistics and Econometric etc.Firstly,the paper analyzed and described the economic development of Zhenjiang.Secondly,this paper established expand Cobb-Douglas production by putting R&D input,Human capital,industrial structure variation and index of opening up in it based on the theory of economic growth and the actual situation of Zhenjiang.Using the principal components regression analyzed the economic growth factors of Zhenjiang,discussed the effect of the factors to economic growth and measured the contribution of each factor input to economic growth based on the date of Zhenjiang from 1995 to 2006.The paper also compared economic growth in Zhenjiang,with,Nanjing and Suzhou in order to recognize the economic growth characteristics of Zhenjiang more clearly.Finally,we made the suggestions to promote economic growth in the city of Zhenjiang combined with its actual situation.Studies have shown that the effect of Labor input to economic growth was weak,the contribution of opening-up to economic growth was relatively low,didn’t play its role,capital input,R&D input,Human capital,industrial structure variation played significant roles in economic growth in the six main economic factors and economic growth in Zhenjiang was impulsed by these four factors.Achieve Economic growth of Zhenjiang mainly through the high growth of factors input.The exertive effects of factors are not high.So the following measures should be taken to promote economic growth in Zhenjiang:broadening the scale of investment and fund recourses,improving investment structure,raising investment efficiency;attaching important to scientific and technological progress,speeding up scientific and technological innovation; establishing the concept of human resources,lying emphasis on human capital accumulation,improving the quality of labors;accelerating industrial structure variation and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure;developing open economy,accelerating the pace of opening to the outside world;developing circular economy.更多还原