【作者】 李晓萌；

【导师】 申世飞；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 计算机模拟是研究人员疏散的主要方式,但由于缺乏人员疏散行为的实际数据,疏散模型的验证问题至今未得到较好解决。在我国,国内在进行疏散模拟时,一般直接使用或参考国外数据,这个问题尤为突出。人员疏散行为与人的生理特征、文化背景、行为习惯、应急疏散素养等密切相关,我国人员疏散行为特征与国外有很大差异。直接采用国外的数据,来分析我国人群疏散安全问题,必然大大降低计算机模拟的准确性和可信性。因此,开展针对我国人群疏散行为的数据采集和分析工作十分重要。本文通过开展问卷调查、疏散演习实验、地铁人流观测,研究我国人群的疏散行为特征。首先,通过问卷调查,对人员疏散行为进行定性分析。论文以火灾为例,对人员在灾害情况下的一些典型的疏散行为反应进行了统计分析,研究了人员性别、年龄、文化程度、演习培训经历等人员特征因素对行为反应的影响。然后,通过疏散实验,对人员疏散行为进行定量研究。论文综合运用问卷调查、经验公式计算、计算机模拟等分析方法,研究了紧急疏散过程中个体疏散路径的选择、疏散时间以及人群通过房间出口和楼梯疏散的运动规律。研究了出口流量与宽度的关系,结果表明出口单位流量不是常数,与人员密度和疏散秩序密切相关。总结了人群沿楼梯疏散的单位流量与密度、速度与密度的关系式。同时,利用实验数据,对疏散时间经验公式中的参数进行了标定,采用两种精细网格人员疏散模型对实验进行了模拟分析。计算结果表明,精细网格模型能够较好地模拟疏散秩序良好、人员在瓶颈处拥挤不严重的情况。不同输入速度下的模拟结果表明,模型的输入速度对模拟精度有较大影响。论文还分析了影响模型输入速度的因素。最后,开展了地铁人流观测,与疏散演习人流进行比较,分析了常态和紧急态下人群疏散运动规律的区别和联系。结果表明,相同密度下,演习中的人员运动速度和单位流量显著高于地铁人流。本文通过实验和调查,采集人员疏散行为数据,并对经验公式和疏散模型进行了验证和参数标定,可供人员疏散研究和建筑性能化设计参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, simulation is the major way to study evacuation. However, due to lack of evacuation data, the verification of evacuation models is still a challenging problem which has not got a good solution. This problem is particularly severe in China. Due to the lack of evacuation data for Chinese population, domestic simulation studies on evacuation often rely on foreign data. However, evacuation behaviours have strong dependence on human characteristics, such as physical feature, cultural backgrounds, habits and emergency training. So the evacuation behaviours of Chinese population must have some differences with foreign population. Using foreign data to study evacuation of Chinese crowd will inevitably greatly reduce the accuracy and credibility of computer simulation. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct research work on data collection and analysis of evacuation behaviour of Chinese population. In this study, data collection and analysis of evacuation behaviour of Chinese population is carried out by means of questionnaire survey, evacuation drill and the observation of pedestrian flow in a subway station.First of all, a questionnaire survey is conducted to make a qualitative analysis of evacuation behaviours. Taking fire incidents for instance, some typical evacuation behaviours during disasters are statistically analyzed. The impact of human characteristics, such as gender, age, education level and training, on evacuation behaviours is studied.Then, an evacuation drill is carried out to make a quantitative study of evacuation behaviours. Comprehensive methods including questionnaire survey, empirical formula calculation and computer simulation, are used to make a systematic analysis of the drill experiment. Route selection of individuals, evacuation time, and crowd movements at exits and on stairs are studied. The relationship between exit flow and width is studied. It is found that the unit flow of exits is not a constant and has a close tie with crowd density and evacuation order. The formulas of the relation between unit flow, velocity and density on stairwells are summarized by drill data.Meanwhile, drill data are used to verify and calibrate the parameters of empirical formulas and computer model. Togawa formula is used to calculate evacuation time. The formula’s parameters, movement speed and unit flow, are calibrated by the drill data. Two kinds of fine network evacuation models are used to make a simulation analysis on the drill. The comparison on simulation accuracy between the two models is made with the same input parameters. It is proved that fine network model is capable of simulating the process of an orderly evacuation, in which the physical interactions between individuals at bottlenecks are not serious. Simulations of the drill with different input values of pedestrian speed are conducted. It is found that the accuracy of simulations have a great dependence on the model’s pedestrian speed. Factors that influence the pedestrian speed are discussed.Finally, the observation of pedestrian flow in a subway station is carried out to make a comparison with pedestrian flow in evacuation drill. The characteristics of crowd evacuation movement on stairwells at normal state and under emergency are compared. The results show that the movement speed and unit flow of the pedestrians in the drill is greatly higher than that in the subway station at the same crowd density.In this paper, large amounts of data of evacuation behaviours are collected by experiment and investigation. Empirical formulas and evacuation models are verified and calibrated. The result of this study can provide reference for evacuation study and performance-based design.更多还原