日本、台湾（地区）资产泡沫破灭后实体经济走势差异的比较研究

【作者】 聂倩倩；

【导师】 谢百三；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 产业经济学， 2008， 硕士

【副题名】兼析对中国大陆的启示

【摘要】 随着中国大陆经济的发展,房地产泡沫在2003年以来便有所显现,此后房价增速更是明显加快。2005年下半年,在人民币升值推动下,上证指数也从近1000点上涨到2007年10月的6000多点,房地产、股票两大资产泡沫迹象明显。资产泡沫化问题由此受到越来越多的关注。而随着国家紧缩性宏观调控措施的陆续出台,从2007年10月开始,上证指数又出现了近50%的大跌,房地产市场以深圳为代表也出现了一定的回落,发展前景在政策影响下极不明朗。这则开始引发对于资产泡沫破灭问题的关注。泡沫的破灭往往会严重影响经济的健康发展,甚至可能导致实体经济严重衰退。那么,接下来的问题便是:应当采取怎样的调控政策和相关应对措施,以防止泡沫破灭后实体经济的长期衰退?他山之石,可以攻玉。20世纪80年代中后期,日本、台湾(地区)的经历与目前的中国有惊人的相似。两者几乎在同一时期经历了本币升值背景下泡沫经济的冲击。它们的泡沫经济都以资产价格的暴涨和暴跌为显著特征。但是,资产价格破灭后,日本实体经济陷入了十二年的萧条,台湾(地区)实体经济则在受到重创的一年以后开始恢复。纵观日本和台湾(地区)泡沫经济形成的背景和成因,有诸多相似之处,那么为什么在泡沫经济破灭之后会出现迥然不同的走势?究竟台湾(地区)在哪些方面略优于日本而避免了实体经济遭遇重创?毋庸置疑,对于这样一些原因的探讨可以帮助我们解答中国大陆目前所面临的相似难题。正是基于此,本文从泡沫经济的一般定义和理论为起点,借鉴了相关宏观经济学理论,归纳出了泡沫形成(破灭)从而资产价格波动影响实体经济的渠道与机制,以作为文章主要的理论分析框架,进而从比较研究的视角,分析了日本、台湾(地区)20世纪80年代中后期泡沫经济的特点、成因以及泡沫破灭后资产价格、实体经济的表现,进一步在理论分析框架之下,从经济因素、政策因素、对外经济贸易环境因素等方面,探讨了日本、台湾(地区)泡沫破灭后实体经济走势出现差异的原因,最后是对中国大陆的启示与政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With Chinese Mainland’s economic development, real estate bubble has been on the show since 2003. As the RMB’s appreciation in 2005, the stock bubble emerged obviously at that time, and lasted until October, 2007. However, as the tight monetary policy came on, the bubble of the stock and real estate market has been controlled. But both asset markets have cooled down to some extent, especially the stock market, witnessing huge drop since then. Then attention began to be paid on the asset bubble burst problem because the burst of the bubble economy could trigger a serious economic recession of the real economy.In the late 1980s, Japan and Taiwan(Area) had experienced the impact of the bubble economy nearly at the same time, the same as the current Chinese Mainland. The asset prices rising and declining suddenly and sharply were the significant feature of the bubble economy. After the burst of bubble economy, the real economy of Japan got into economic recession of more than 10 years .Taiwan(Area) ’s real economy was badly hit in one year and then recovered later. Looking at the background and causes of the bubble economy in Japan and Taiwan(Area), there were many similarities. But why there were very different trends of the real economy after the bubble burst? And what are the better factors of Taiwan (Area) than of Japan to avoid damages that the real economy of Japan had experienced? Without any doubt, the comparative study on Japan and Taiwan(Area) would shed light on Chinese Mainland’s current problem.So based on all the above, this paper firstly reviews the classic macro-economic theories, then generalizes the mechanism through which the asset bubble burst exerts influence on real economy as the major theoretical analysis framework. What’s more, from a comparative study perspective, the characteristics and background of the asset bubble in Japan and Taiwan(Area) in the late 1980s will be analyzed. Furthermore, the asset bubble burst as well as the following different real economy performance will be described. Based all the above reality and under our theoretical framework, the underling reasons behind the different real economy performance will be explored in detail. Then suggestions will be offered for the current Chinese Mainland.更多还原